Predictions: Who will emerge from NCAA Tournament to make Frozen Four?

This could be a big year for New England in the NCAA men's hockey tournament. It certainly was last season.

In 2023, both Quinnipiac and Boston University made the Frozen Four. BU fell to then-No. 1 Minnesota in the semifinals. Quinnipiac won the national championship, after taking down the Gophers, 3-2, in overtime.

There were four New England teams in the big dance last year. This season, there are five.

Two of those are No. 1 seeds — Boston College, the No. 1 overall seed, and Boston University, the No. 2. Quinnipiac is back looking to defend its title. Maine and UMass are also in.

So, how do we think things will go?

It's been a big month for predictions. Evan Marinofsky and Patrick Donnelly predicted the New England prep hockey playoffs, as well as each result on MIAA championship day.

Marinofsky went 13-8 in his boys prep playoff predictions. He was hot until championship day when he went 0-for-3. He made up for it, however, going 3-1 with MIAA picks. Donnelly was on fire in the girls prep playoffs, going 14-3, while going 1-1 for the MIAA championships.

Will their success translate to the NCAA Tournament? Let's find out.

Providence Regional

No. 1 Boston College vs. No. 4 Michigan Tech 

Marinofsky: The Eagles have been a wagon this season. They're fresh off outscoring opponents 14-3 in the Hockey East semifinals and championship. Both of those opponents (BU and UMass) will be in the NCAA Tournament, too. Head coach Greg Brown's team gets the most press for its offense, which is led by local prodigies Will Smith (Lexington, Mass.) and Ryan Leonard (Amherst, Mass.), as well as Cutter Gauthier, the nation's leading goal scorer (35), and Gabe Perreault.

But the real reason BC will have success in the tournament? Freshman netminder Jacob Fowler.

BC wins, 4-1. 

Donnelly: BC's freshmen line, plus Gauthier, will grab most of the headlines for the Eagles. But to me, the biggest difference is Fowler, like Evan said. The lopsided scores in the Hockey East semifinals and championships might not tell the full story. Fowler was awesome in both games, and he has been all season. What a difference he's been in net for BC this season after they had their ups and downs with grad transfers post-Spencer Knight (Darien, Conn.).

Michigan Tech freshmen Isaac Gordon has had a great season with 18 goals and 36 points in 39 games, and graduate Blake Pietila has been strong in net. But the Huskies just don't have the horses to keep up.

BC wins, 3-0.

No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 3 Quinnipiac 

Marinofsky: This will be a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the nation. Wisconsin goalie Kyle McClellan and Quinnipiac goalie Vinny Duplessis, both seniors, have been lights out. Both teams are also fresh off tough losses in their respective conference tournaments. Quinnipiac's Collin Graf (Lincoln, Mass.) and Jacob Quillan will be the best offensive players in the game, but I have a tough time thinking coach Mike Hastings, in his first year at Wisconsin, isn't at least making it to the second round. Not-so-fun fact: The last two defending national champions have lost in the first round.

Wisconsin wins, 3-2. 

Donnelly: This is one of the most intriguing first-round matchups. It's arguably the two best goalies in the nation. You have Wisconsin making its way back up, and the defending champs in QU after finally breaking through last year. The Bobcats are the more productive and deeper team offensively with three skaters inside the national top 50 in points, compared to zero for the Badgers. Anyone who's watched Duplessis the last few years knows he's a big-game player, too. He finally has his shot in the national tournament.

Quinnipiac wins, 2-1, in overtime.

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Who emerges from Providence Regional? 

Marinofsky: In my scenario, I'd have Boston College vs. Wisconsin. No upsets here. The Eagles are just too good. They have a lot of everything — elite offensive talent, strong defense and an outstanding goaltender. They're on a mission.

BC wins, 5-2. 

Donnelly: No upsets here, either. Like Evan said, BC is just too good, even for Quinnipiac. As deep, productive and structured as QU is, the Eagles are better in each department. The only thing that could get them is inexperience with the key young players, but I'll bank on that talent.

BC wins, 4-2.

Sioux Falls Regional

No. 1 Boston University vs. No. 4 RIT 

Marinofsky: BU drew the unfortunate reality of being sent all the way to South Dakota, and RIT isn't to be taken lightly. The Tigers have won seven straight games, boast two strong scorers in Carter Wilkie (41 points) and Cody Laskosky (40 points), and junior goalie Tommy Scrafone has been outstanding with a 2.18 GAA and a .928 save percentage. Both rank inside the top 10 among all goalies.

But the Terriers have been too good this season. Freshman Macklin Celebrini, who also won Hockey East Player and Rookie of the Year, is up to 31 goals and 59 points in 35 games. Sophomore Lane Hutson is a beast on defense. And, most important, BU is fresh off a humiliating loss to BC in the Hockey East championship.

BU wins, 4-2. 

Donnelly: Sure the travel stinks for BU, but a change of scenery could be what they need after getting embarrassed by BC last weekend. The Terriers' special teams were awful against BC, particularly the penalty kill, which ranks 35th nationally at 79.5 percent. Meanwhile, RIT's power play ranks 13th at 23.6 percent. That's the path to an upset for the Tigers.

In the end, BU, like BC, just has too much talent. The Terriers' bottom six is especially deep, which can be the difference for games in the trenches. Plus, there are always the headliners in Celebrini, Hutson and others, like Ryan Greene. The two-way center has come through in big spots all season, and he's red-hot right now.

BU wins, 4-1.

No. 2 Minnesota vs. No. 3 Omaha 

Marinofsky: Two non-New England teams. Who cares, right? Minnesota is the clear favorite here and holds the advantage in net with graduate student Justen Close. But Omaha has been hot of late, winning seven of its last nine games and coming oh-so-close to beating Denver for the NCHC championship. There needs to be an upset somewhere.

Omaha wins, 3-2, in overtime. 

Donnelly: I want to pick Omaha. I do. Tanner Ludtke and Griffin Ludtke have both been awesome this year, but Minnesota is still very deep and experienced after last year's run to the national title game. Even without Matthew Knies and Logan Cooley, there's plenty of firepower, whether it's Rhett Pitlick or Jimmy Snuggerud. It's close, but Close gives them a slight edge in net, too (pun intended).

Minnesota wins, 4-3, in overtime.

FULL BRACKET: Click or tap here for the full 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket

Who emerges from Sioux Falls Regional? 

Marinofsky: So, BU vs. Omaha in my scenario. I have my reservations about BU netminder Mathieu Caron. But we can worry about that later. I have the Terriers earning a trip to St. Paul, Minn. You're welcome, Pat.

BU wins, 3-1. 

Donnelly: Minnesota knocked BU out in the Frozen Four last season. Like Evan, Caron makes me nervous. I still think BU's talent will carry them through, though. A second straight trip to the Frozen Four is in the cards for this core of Terriers.

BU wins, 3-2

Springfield Regional

No. 1 Denver vs. No. 4 Massachusetts 

Marinofsky: Denver has the nation's No. 1 offense. The Pioneers boast NHL Draft prospect and freshman defenseman Zeev Buium, who has 11 goals and 48 points, which leads all defenders in the country. Junior Jack Devine ranks sixth in the nation in points with 55. But UMass holds the advantage in net with freshman Michael Hrabal. The Minutemen are also fresh off a humiliating, 8-1 loss to BC in the Hockey East semifinals. Head coach Greg Carvel will have UMass in a much better spot going into this one. Plus, this is basically home-ice advantage for the Minutemen since they will host this regional.

UMass wins, 2-1. 

Donnelly: I'm going to disagree with Evan on this one. I think it's more of a wash between Hrabal and Denver junior Matt Davis. The two sides are fairly even defensively and on special teams, too. But despite extra motivation for UMass after getting embarrassed by BC, the Pioneers are flat-out on a roll right now. They've won five straight and are 11-2-1 since Feb. 3, winning on different fashions, too. They're averaging almost two goals per game more than the Minutemen, and they have so many different ways to beat teams. Unfortunately, the UMass fans may be disappointed in a de-facto home game for Minutemen. At least Denver hasn't already played a bunch of games at the MassMutual Center this season.

Denver wins, 3-1.

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No. 2 Maine vs. No. 3 Cornell 

Marinofsky: Maine has been an extremely fun story this year. The Black Bears are back, which is great for college hockey. That's a testament to the coaching staff led by Ben Barr. The Nadeau brothers have been offensive forces. But Cornell is by far the best defensive team in the nation. Junior goalie Ian Shane leads the nation with his 1.70 GAA. Both of these squads stumbled down the stretch of the regular season a bit, so that cancels out. Cornell upset a No. 1 seed in Denver last season. I can see the Big Red getting an upset again this season, too.

Cornell wins, 3-1. 

Donnelly: I'm so glad Maine is back on the college hockey map. Unfortunately for the Black Bears, I don't think they can get past Cornell. The biggest reason lies in net. Shane has been fantastic this season for the Big Red, while Maine's goaltending is a major red flag at the moment. Senior Victor Ostman lost the starting job to freshman Albin Boija down the stretch in the regular season.

Cornell wins, 4-2.

Who emerges from Springfield Regional? 

Marinofsky: Cornell vs. UMass — the two lower seeds in the regional. Neither are known for their offensive firepower, while both boast strong defenses. This is a really close one and it hurts me to do it, but...

Cornell wins, 4-3, in overtime. 

Donnelly: I got Denver vs. Cornell, a rematch from last season's regional round. I don't think the Big Red will get the upset again, barring any heroics from Shane. Denver's offense is too explosive.

Denver wins, 4-2.

Maryland Heights Regional

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Western Michigan 

Marinofsky: Michigan State has been great this season. The Spartans are fresh off winning the Big Ten. Freshman netminder Trey Augustine has been strong in net with a 2.88 GAA and a .918 save percentage. Freshman Artyom Levshunov, who looks like a consensus top-three pick in this June's NHL Draft, leads the team with 34 points. Western Michigan is always a tough out, but the Spartans have just been too good.

Michigan State wins, 3-0. 

Donnelly: Like Maine, it's always better when Michigan State is relevant. Levshunov looks like a stud for the Spartans. Meanwhile, Pat Ferschweiler has the Broncos in the tournament for the third straight season, so WMU does have experience in its corner. His team is better, at least on paper, defensively and on the penalty kill. The Broncos also dominate in the possession metrics. I think this is closer than people think.

Western Michigan wins, 2-1.

No. 2 North Dakota vs. No. 3 Michigan 

Marinofsky: Nothing like a big-time clash between college hockey powerhouses. While North Dakota ranks higher, Michigan actually has the better offense, as the Wolverines have 160 goals this season. Rutger McGroarty and Gavin Brindley have been high-end scorers this season, both with more than 50 points.

Michigan wins, 4-2. 

Donnelly: North Dakota and Michigan, two hockey blue bloods battling it out in the first round. This has a chance to be the best matchup in any of the regionals. Neither U-M's Jake Barczewski nor UND's Ludvig Persson have been spectacular in net. This could come down to the offense, and it's hard to ignore Michigan's attack. Whether it's McGroarty, Brindley, or Seamus Casey on defense there is no shortage of weapons. That's also not mentioning the Wolverines' power play, which is far and away tops in the nation. I like their chances in a track meet.

Michigan wins, 5-4.

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Who emerges from Maryland Heights Regional? 

Marinofsky: Ah, yes. A rematch of the Big Ten championship with Michigan State and Michigan. MSU took that one, 5-4, in overtime. NEHJ readers know I have a rule when it comes to picking matchups: If the two teams recently played, I pick the other in the upcoming matchup. It (usually) works.

Michigan wins, 6-5. 

Donnelly: That leaves us with Western Michigan taking on its Goliath, Michigan. Unfortunately, I think that's where the Cinderella magic ends for WMU. The Wolverines will overpower them offensively.

Michigan wins, 4-2.