Before we get into the NEPSAC boys Small School semifinal matchups, let's look back at the quarterfinal games.
The biggest takeaway from those four games? How much my finger is on the pulse of what will happen in the future.
I'm going to take a victory lap. While I went 3-for-4 on my Small School picks (and 9-for-12 across all three playoff fields), my predicted scores were almost identical to what happened. Some might wonder if I have the script.
- My prediction: Rivers, 4-2 | Final: Rivers, 5-3
- My prediction: St. Mark's, 5-2 | Final: Pomfret, 5-2
- My prediction: Canterbury, 7-3 | Final: Canterbury, 7-4
- My prediction: Frederick Gunn, 3-1 | Final: Frederick Gunn, 3-1
What I should do is be like Seinfeld's George Costanza and end on a high note. Walk out while things are still good. But no — I can't do that even though the matchups are even more difficult to predict.
Let's dive into my predictions for the semifinals. Can I stay hot?
COMPLETE BRACKETS: Elite 8 | Large School | Small School
No. 1 Rivers vs. No. 4 Frederick Gunn
Oh boy. This is a tough one to predict mainly because the cores of each team are so vastly different.
Rivers is young, led in goals (17) and points (38) by eighth grader Carter Meyer (Winchester, Mass.), an '09. Right behind Meyer in scoring is sophomore Justin Graf (Lincoln, Mass.), as well as eighth grader Finn Sears (Medford, Mass.). On defense, the leading scorers are freshman Freddy Meyer (Winchester, Mass.) and sophomore Evan Handler (Walpole, Mass.). Sam Pandolfo (Winchester, Mass.) and Eben Alden (Dover, Mass.) — two other eighth graders — play prominent roles on the team.
Frederick Gunn, however, is completely different. Head coach Craig Badger's team is led in goals (31) and points (49) by senior Alex LoGuercio (Monroe, Conn.), who has been scorching hot of late. Junior defenseman and Cornell commit Luke Calabria ranks second on the team in scoring with 29 points, while postgrad defenseman Jake Johner is tied with junior forward Will Jackson with 24 points.
Frederick Gunn has been without senior forward Mark Pizzo (Redding, Conn.) since a 4-3 OT win at Avon Old Farms on Feb. 7. While they stumbled after the win without him, the Highlanders have scored 30 goals in their last five games. Rivers, on the other hand, also enters on a five-game win streak with 22 goals scored.
Both teams have struggled in net. Rivers has used three different netminders, but has settled on senior Jason Delehoy (Brockton, Mass.). Frederick Gunn has stuck with senior Mitchell McCusker for the whole season and he's been better of late, but has had his ups and downs.
The one X-factor is Frederick Gunn made it to the Small School championship game last season and held a commanding 3-1 lead in the third period. But the Highlanders let it slip away, losing to Lawrence Academy, 4-3, in overtime. Most of that core is on this current team.
GIRLS PREDICTIONS: Who will win in the Elite 8 semifinals?
This game is going to be all about offense. But I'm going to go with experience and the trauma of last season's title game being the motivation for Frederick Gunn.
Prediction:Â Frederick Gunn wins, 5-4.
No. 3 Canterbury vs. No. 7 Pomfret
Pomfret deserves a lot of credit. It walked into St. Mark's and stunned the No. 2 seed with a 5-2 win. They played a tough, physical game.
Things went right for the Griffins. The top scorers did their job. Senior Jesse Heinberg and junior Luke Corrigan (Hudson, Mass.) both had a goal and an assist. Senior Louie Marcellino, who leads the team in goals (24) and points (43), had a goal. In net, senior Beau Johnson (New Canaan, Conn.) continued his superb play of late with 36 saves.
But Canterbury boasts a few more offensive weapons than St. Mark's. The top two lines are full of impactful scorers in postgrads Jackson Powers (Woburn, Mass.) and Duncan Stewart, seniors Ryan Stratton and Sam Ciappa, and junior and Sacred Heart commit Ryan Lucarelli (Westport, Conn.). Senior Jake Stevens ranks inside the top 10 for scoring among defensemen with 34 points.
OTHER SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS: Elite 8 | Large School
These two teams met on Jan. 27 with Canterbury winning 5-1. While I think Johnson keeps this closer, I'm still going with Canterbury.
Prediction:Â Canterbury wins, 4-2.
