In roughly a week, the Elite 8 will be announced along with the rest of the NEPSAC postseason.
We've done numerous rankings throughout the season, but this is a different look at the region's top teams. Why are some teams better candidates for the Elite 8 than others? Who has done enough? Who could sneak in? Who could fall out?
There are three teams I look at as Elite 8 favorites — squads who have the best chance of winning the whole thing. But when I look at the landscape, various other teams have what it takes to pull off an upset.
So, how are the eight picked? It's through an algorithm called the JSPR, which is comparable to the PairWise rankings that help set the NCAA tournament field. I picked the top 14 teams and made my case for why each has a shot at being in the Elite 8 dance.
All of these teams were picked according to the projected final JSPR as of Friday, Feb. 16.
Cushing (24-2-0)
Why they'd be in:Â Cushing lost twice in December to Holderness and Lawrence Academy. Since then, the Penguins have won 16 straight, including taking down Kimball Union in the first of a back to back on Friday night. There is no doubt they will be in the Elite 8.
Why they can make a run:Â Like Kimball Union, Cushing is a deep, veteran group. Senior goalie Marko Bilic, an Arizona State commit, gives the Penguins an advantage in net in almost every scenario. Up front, Cushing can roll four lines full of college commits, postgrads, seniors and juniors. Defensively, Cushing has a little bit of everything. A good chunk of last year's roster that lost in the Elite 8 title game is still there, so head coach Paul Pearl's team will want to get back and make up for last March's defeat.
Avon Old Farms (19-1-1)
Why they'd be in:Â Avon hasn't lost in regulation yet this season. The Winged Beavers lost to Kent in double OT at the Avon Christmas Classic (it counted as a tie) and then recently fell, 4-3, in overtime to Frederick Gunn. A date with Salisbury on Saturday could impact its standing in the Elite 8, but not by much.
Why they can make a run:Â The Winged Beavers won the big dance last season, so a lot of the winning roster is still in place. Led by postgrad Alex Pelletier, head coach John Gardner's team has the firepower to outscore other top teams. The big question will be if they can hold up defensively. Also, how will Gardner handle playing junior goalie Michael Heinke (Old Saybrook, Conn.) and sophomore Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.)?
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Brunswick (19-3-2)
Why they'd be in:Â On Dec. 10, Brunswick was 2-1-2. Since then, the Bruins have been one of the best four teams in the region with wins over St. Sebastian's, Belmont Hill, Frederick Gunn (twice), Berkshire and Salisbury. Head coach Mike Kennedy's team should be a safe bet to host a quarterfinal game.
Why they can make a run:Â Time and again, Brunswick has proven it can beat anyone this season. Along with the wins mentioned above, the Bruins have also beaten St. Andrew's College, St. Francis Prep, Upper Canada College (twice), Elite Hockey Academy and South Kent. Being used to playing a difficult, independent schedule will be Brunswick's biggest asset come the Elite 8. Senior forwards Sean Gibbons (Fairfield, Conn.) and Brendan Giles (Ridgefield, Conn.), as well as senior defenseman Cooper Cleaves (Riverside, Conn.) and senior goalie Will Baker (Norwalk, Conn.) will all be imperative to a deep run.
Kimball Union (26-3-0)
Why they'd be in:Â The Wildcats got an early wakeup call when they fell to Rivers, 4-3, at the Exeter Invitational in early December. Since then, head coach Tim Whitehead's team has dominated the Lakes Region, most notably sweeping Holderness. KUA has also beaten strong teams like Kent, Salisbury and Phillips Andover. Falling to No. 4 after Friday's loss to Cushing should make Saturday's matchup all the more interesting. Still, the Wildcats are a lock for the Elite 8.
Why they can make a run:Â Kimball Union is deep everywhere. It has the best player in prep hockey in Jack Sadowski (Arlington, Mass.), who has 36 goals and 73 points in 30 games. Sam LeDrew has 62 points and is one of the most dynamic players in the region. In back, the Wildcats have a good mix of puck-movers (Andrew O'Sullivan and Jack McMinn) and shutdown defenders (Luke Clarner and Ian Ramsay). Junior netminder Blake McMeniman (Revere, Mass.) could end up being the team's X-factor.
Holderness (21-3-0)
Why they'd be in:Â Two losses to Kimball Union in the last month prevented Holderness from moving into hosting an Elite 8 game. Still, the Bulls will most likely be a strong No. 5 or 6 seed in the big dance. It took until Jan. 15 for them to lose their first game. As much as Holderness torched the Lakes Region, its biggest win came over Cushing at the Lawrence Groton Tournament, which it eventually won.
Why they can make a run:Â The Bulls are heavy on veterans. Postgrad Pavit Mehra (Hopkinton, Mass.), an '04, leads the team in scoring with 54 points in 24 games, while Maine commit and senior Aaron VanWie is right behind with 52 points. Senior Caeden Herrington (Manchester, Vt.) leads the way on the back end and senior goalie Ryan Nolan (Hampton, N.H.) has been a stalwart. Holderness won't be an easy out.
Salisbury (15-5-1)
Why they'd be in:Â After going 4-4-0 from Dec. 9 to Jan. 10, the Crimson Knights stabilized, going 8-1-1 in their next 10 games, propelling them into the thick of the Elite 8 mix. Head coach Andrew Will's team has big tests remaining against Avon Old Farms on Saturday and Berkshire on Monday, which could impact things. Still, Salisbury should be in the Elite 8.
Why they can make a run:Â The "S" in Salisbury might as well stand for structure. It's not a flashy team, but the Crimson Knights play hard and disciplined, leading to good defense at one end and scoring chances at the other. It's never a good idea to count Salisbury out when it comes to the Elite 8.
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St. George's (20-3-1)
Why they'd be in:Â While St. George's has losses against Thayer, Brooks and Milton Academy on its record, the Dragons have just taken care of business. The big wins came against Rivers (twice), St. Mark's, Groton and Dexter Southfield. Unless they have some serious missteps against Groton, St. Mark's or Middlesex to end the season, the Dragons should be in.
Why they can make a run:Â Ryder Shea (Framingham, Mass.) is the primary reason. The Maine commit is one of the best goalies in prep hockey and has the capability to carry a team through the Elite 8 gauntlet. What's going against the Dragons is their schedule. They haven't played anyone in USHR's projected Elite 8 this season.
St. Sebastian's (16-6-1)
Why they'd be in: Now is where things get really tight. The Arrows haven't lived up to expectations this season, but they've been great of late, winning their last five games and eight of 10. Big wins on the season came against Rivers, Berkshire, Nobles, Belmont Hill and Lawrence Academy. Nobles' loss to Belmont Hill helps head coach Sean McCann's team a lot, placing it in the Elite 8 as of Friday night.
Why they can make a run:Â I said it on the latest podcast but if St. Sebastian's finishes in the Elite 8, the Arrows have the makings of a team that could upset some higher-seeded squads. It's a veteran group with lots of firepower and college commits up front. If St. Sebastian's drew KUA or Avon Old Farms in the first round, the Arrows should hang with those two teams offensively. They've also gotten hot at the right time, getting junior forward and Boston College commit Teddy Mutryn (Norwell, Mass.) back from injury.
Nobles (14-7-3)
Why they'd be in: Entering Friday night, Nobles was in the No. 8 spot, but the loss to the Sextants drops it out. Nobles has been up and down this season, with wins over Belmont Hill (that one came on Dec. 3), Phillips Andover (twice), Berkshire and St. Sebastian's. But the Bulldogs have also had some rough stretches like going 1-1-2 at the Flood-Marr and then losing the next game to Williston Northampton, as well as dropping two in a row to St. Sebastian's and Rivers at the end of January.
Why they can make a run:Â As a No. 8 seed, the odds would be stacked against Nobles. That doesn't mean the Bulldogs couldn't make a run. Head coach Brian Day's team has some strong scorers up front in juniors Kyle O'Leary (Medfield, Mass.), Teddy MacAusland (Westwood, Mass.), Dennis Davidson (Newton, Mass.) and Ethan Cox (Westboro, Mass.), as well as sophomore Billy MacAusland (Westwood, Mass.). Senior Tyler Bloomfield (Hudson, Mass.) has also posted a great season in net, with a 2.76 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage.
Rivers (15-9-1)
Why they'd be in:Â Despite being extremely young, Rivers has had some impressive wins this season. The Red Wings have beaten Kimball Union, Nobles, Belmont Hill and St. Mark's. Even though Rivers was ranked No. 10 in JSPR as of late Friday night, I'd expect head coach Freddy Meyer's team to be a high seed in the Small School Tournament.
Why they can make a run:Â Did I mention Rivers is extremely young? Rivers can be inconsistent, which is almost worse for its opponent, leaving teams wondering which version of the Red Wings will show up. No matter what, watching this Rivers team with so much talent in the '07 and '09 birth years on the Elite 8 or Small School stage will be a treat.
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Kent (13-7-2)
Why they'd be in:Â When the calendar flipped to 2024, it looked like Kent was on a sure path to the Elite 8. It had won the Avon Christmas Classic and gone 7-2-1 in the first 10 games. Since then, however, the Lions have gone 6-5-1, most likely making them a Large School Tournament team.
Why they can make a run:Â The main reason is the forward crew. Seniors Gio DiGiulian (South Burlington, Vt.), Owen Mahar and Jack Roberts, and juniors Stefano Pietrantonio and Michael Fiedorczuk help put Kent top 10 in the region in goals-for. The problem is with goals against, as Kent has allowed 70 goals, which is middle of the pack.
Belmont Hill (16-8-2)
Why they'd be in:Â After Friday's win over Nobles, it's not totally out of the question. While the Sextants have won four straight games, Belmont Hill recently lost four of five games, including losses to St. Sebastian's, Rivers and Lawrence Academy.
Why they can make a run:Â With Belmont Hill, it's more about gaining experience for the future. There is promise all over the lineup in juniors Grayson Cohen (Weston, Mass.), Andrew Waugh (Norwell, Mass.) and Keagin Wilson (Hingham, Mass.), sophomores Jake Tavares (Belmont, Mass.), Patrick Woods (Charlestown, Mass.) and JJ Thibodeau (Waltham, Mass.), and freshmen David Bosco (Winchester, Mass.), Andrew Giguere (Georgetown, Mass.) and Brady Sloper (North Andover, Mass.). Their time for the Elite 8 will probably be next year.
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Lawrence Academy (14-8-1)
Why they'd be in:Â Lawrence Academy's recent losses to St. Sebastian's and Governor's Academy hurt its chances at sneaking into the Elite 8. The Spartans still have games against St. Sebastian's and Tabor left, but unless something crazy happens, I'd expect Lawrence to be a high seed in the Large School Tournament.
Why they can make a run:Â If head coach Robbie Barker's team were to get in, it wouldn't shock me if the Spartans made things interesting. They have potent scoring from seniors Owen Leahy (Warwick, R.I.), Brendan Hirsch (Arlington, Mass.) and Spencer Hirsch, as well as defenseman Shawn Leary (Dorchester, Mass.). As a No. 4 seed in the Small School Tournament last year, the Spartans won the whole thing. Could they do it on a larger scale in the Elite 8 as a No. 8 seed? It's hard to say. But we do know they have a winning pedigree.
Dexter Southfield (14-7-2)
Why they'd be in:Â Dexter has had its moments this season, like when it beat St. Mark's, Stanstead College, Phillips Exeter and Dexter Southfield in early December. But a poor showing at the Groton/Lawrence Holiday Tournament and recent losses to St. George's, Phillips Andover and New Hampton will probably keep it in the Large School Tournament.
Why they can make a run:Â Head coach Danny Donato's team has some strong scoring at the top of its lineup in seniors Cullen Emery (Reading, Mass.) and Henry Butte (Belmont, Mass.), juniors Sean Leetch (Boston, Mass.) and Tyler Hamilton (Framingham, Mass.), sophomore Joe Marchi (Foxboro, Mass.) and freshman Noah Survilas (Winthrop, Mass.). In net, sophomore Colin Davis (Canton, Mass.) is one of the most underrated goalies in the region.
