The 2023 NHL Draft is oh-so-close to being here, and it's slated to have New England talent taken high.
It's no secret that Will Smith (Lexington, Mass.) and Ryan Leonard (Amherst, Mass.) highlight the region's draft-eligible players. Both should be gone by the end of Night 1. The exciting parts of their night will be how high they go.
Where it gets fascinating is the rest of the New England talent. There are a handful of prep players vying to be selected. The USHL has some players whom NHL scouts have been keeping close tabs on.
Here are the five biggest questions entering the NHL Draft on Wednesday night.
1. How early is Will Smith taken?
Smith entered the past season with high expectations for the draft and still found a way to exceed them with 51 goals and 127 points in 60 games for the U.S. National Team Development Progam U18 team. He followed that up with an outstanding performance at the World Juniors U18, leading the tournament in points with 20 en route to a gold medal.
While the top two selections are fairly certain in Connor Bedard and Kimball Union alum Adam Fantilli, the next three inside the top 5 are uncertain. Still, I'd be shocked if Smith fell out of the top 5.
The Columbus Blue Jackets hold the No. 3 pick. From what I've heard, Columbus likes him. Does that mean they'll definitely pick him? No, but there's interest.
The San Jose Sharks have the No. 4 pick. But the real reason why I don't think he'll fall past No. 5 — all the connections Smith has to the Montreal Canadiens. General manager Kent Hughes coached Smith, as well as Will Vote (Arlington, Mass.), with the Boston Junior Eagles. Head coach Marty St. Louis coached against Smith when he was at Mid Fairfield. Both were instrumental in setting up Smith, Leonard and Vote in a house together at the USNTDP.
Pick Nos. 3-5 is where I'd expect Smith to be taken.
2. When does Ryan Leonard get selected?
Once Smith is off the board, the attention in New England will shift to Leonard. Once the top five is complete, the goal-scoring Leonard will be one of the biggest names to watch in the No. 6-12 range.
Mock drafts have Leonard going to teams throughout those spots. It's a forward-heavy first round, so with many of those teams, it won't be, "Hey, this team needs a defenseman, so Leonard's out of the question for them." In The Athletic's recent consensus mock draft, two writers had Leonard at No. 6, while the other two had him going at No. 11.
There are two situations that could impact Leonard's draft position. The first is to keep an eye on the Arizona Coyotes. The Coyotes have the No. 6 and No. 12 picks. I doubt Leonard is still around at pick No. 12, but Arizona could select someone else at No. 6 and bet that the Boston College commit will still be there when they select again.
The second is where Matvei Michkov is taken. The Russian superstar only recently made himself available to talk with NHL teams and is signed with SKA Saint Petersburg through 2026, so whoever drafts him won't get him for a while.
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Michkov is undoubtedly a top-five talent, but if he falls out of the top five, Leonard's potential could rise as high as the No. 5 pick.
No one likes a fence-sitter, but my guess is he's somewhere in the No. 7-10 range.
3. Where is Sean Keohane picked?
Out of all the potential prep school players who could be taken, I find Keohane's situation the most interesting.
The Dexter Southfield defenseman entered this past winter with the potential to be taken somewhere as high as the third or even the second round if all went right. The 6-foot-4, smooth-skating defenseman has the foundations of a future pro.
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But everything didn't go right this season. He was hampered all year by a shoulder injury, which required surgery once the season ended, preventing him from going right to the USHL. He still posted four goals and 16 points in 32 games as the anchor of Dexter's defense.
He should be selected on Thursday. My guess is it's somewhere in the fourth, fifth or sixth round.
4. How many prep players will be taken?
The last question leads perfectly to this one. Keohane is definitely one of the prep players expected to be selected in Nashville. But so are Cushing's Ethan Gardula (Princeton, Mass.) and Avon Old Farms' Joe Connor (Amherst, N.H.).
Connor has had quite an eventful year in the lead-up to the draft. He was selected to the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup last summer. Shortly after, he committed to Northeastern. In March, he led Avon Old Farms to an Elite 8 title, finishing off a prep season that saw him score 21 goals and 44 points in 28 games.
Gardula committed to UConn in September and proceeded to eclipse the 50-point mark in prep, posting 51 points in 32 games and guiding the Penguins to an Elite 8 championship appearance.
Both players proved they belonged in the USHL once the prep season ended — Connor with the Muskegon Lumberjacks and Gardula with the Sioux City Musketeers. In The Athletic's recent seven-round mock draft, Connor, Keohane and Avon Old Farms goalie Stephen Peck were taken in the fifth round, while Gardula went in the sixth.
Another name to keep an eye on is Taft goalie Rudy Guimond.
5. How will New England college players do at the draft?
Leonard and Smith may be the only New England natives to be picked in the first round, but there's another player with a massive New England connection who is slated to be taken in the top half of the first round: UConn's Matthew Wood.
Wood was the youngest player in college hockey this winter, not turning 18 until Feb. 6. That didn't stop him from leading UConn in points with 34 in 35 games. He arrived in Storrs, Conn., with a ton of hype after posting 85 points in 46 games for the BCHL's Victoria Grizzlies in 2021-22.
Most NHL mock drafts have him selected somewhere in the same range as Leonard.
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Another prospect to watch is Merrimack's Matt Copponi. While he projects as a later-round pick, the Mansfield, Mass., native made a great case for why he should be taken in his final year of NHL Draft eligibility. He provided timely offense for Merrimack this winter, posting 14 goals and 29 points.
He skipped juniors, making the jump straight from Dexter to Merrimack in 2021-22.
