Before the boys prep hockey playoff brackets are released, there are still games to play. Many of them are important.
Many teams will take to the ice on Friday or Saturday to end their regular seasons. For some, it will be about finishing strong. For others, it's about improving their standing in the playoffs (or sneaking in).
The brackets for the Elite 8, Large School and Small School tournaments will be released Sunday.
As of Thursday, here are the projected playoff seedings according to USHR.
Stuart/Corkery Elite 8 Tournament
- Kimball Union
- Cushing
- Brunswick
- Avon Old Farms
- Holderness
- Salisbury
- St. George's
- St. Sebastian's
Martin/Early Large School Tournament
- Nobles
- Belmont Hill
- Lawrence Academy
- Dexter Southfield
- Deerfield
- Kent
- Berkshire
- Andover
Piatelli/Simmons Small School Tournament
- Rivers
- Canterbury
- St. Mark's
- Groton
- Frederick Gunn
- Tilton
- Middlesex
- Pomfret
Here are the biggest storylines to keep an eye on this weekend.
1. Does Elite 8 seeding change?
When Dexter Southfield lost to Holderness, 3-1, on Wednesday night, it made it almost impossible for Dexter to make the Elite 8. The reason there's even a sliver of hope is because St. Sebastian's didn't beat Lawrence Academy — the game finished in a 2-2 tie.
Even if it's unlikely that Dexter sneaks into the Elite 8, head coach Danny Donato's team is in action against Belmont Hill on Friday. For the Sextants to earn a spot, they would need one or more of Holderness, St. George's and St. Sebastian's to have a late-season collapse. With Holderness and St. George's winning on Wednesday, and the Arrows getting a tie and only having one game left against Thayer, that seems unlikely. Belmont Hill will also host Westminster on Saturday.
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Holderness has the Lakes Region playoffs, which we'll get to in a bit, and St. George's hosts Middlesex on Saturday.
I'd be shocked if the eight teams represented in the Elite 8 on Thursday aren't still there when the brackets release on Sunday.
2. Which games impact Small and Large School seeding?
One of the biggest games of the weekend is on Saturday between Berkshire and Frederick Gunn. Berkshire has the No. 7 spot in the Large School tournament, while Frederick Gunn has the No. 5 seed in the Small School. Frederick Gunn is narrowly behind Groton in the RPI, meaning a win for head coach Craig Badger's team and a loss for the Zebras (they play St. Mark's on Saturday) could give the Gunnery a home playoff game.
Berkshire and Andover have the final two spots in the Large School Tournament, but Loomis Chaffee is right on the doorstep. Loomis Chaffee was in the running for the Elite 8 only a few weeks ago but completely fell out of the playoff race. The Pelicans play Avon Old Farms on Saturday. If the Pelicans were to win that game, it'd be hard to imagine them missing the playoffs.
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3. The Lakes Region playoffs
The Lakes Region Tournament semifinals take place on Friday with the championship played on Saturday. In the top bracket, No. 4 Proctor faces No. 1 Kimball Union and No. 3 St. Paul's takes on No. 2 Holderness. It's highly likely we get a third matchup of Kimball Union and Holderness.
So, who takes this one?
Kimball Union took both regular season matchups with scores of 7-4 and 2-0. Even if Holderness loses, it will still be in the Elite 8 — KUA is too good and the Bulls are pretty snug in the thick of the big dance. But a revenge win for Holderness would give it some serious confidence as it embarks on the postseason. Still, one really good team beating another really good team three times in one prep season is extremely difficult.
4. Can Jack Sadowski hit 80 points?
As of Thursday, Sadowski sat at 76 points in 32 games, which are video game numbers. If Kimball Union plays in both Lakes Region tournament games, it's entirely possible Sadowski hits 80 points. The UNH commit would be the first prep player since Thayer's Jay O'Brien (Hingham, Mass.) hit 80 in 2017-18. That same year, O'Brien was selected 19th overall by the Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL Draft.
Prior to that, even Dexter's Ryan Donato (Scituate, Mass.) and Thayer's Adam Gaudette (Braintree, Mass.) didn't hit 80 points in 2013-14. It was Josh Robertson (Whitman, Mass.), a senior for Proctor, who posted 93 points in 36 games in 2003-04. I'm not sure those numbers will ever be touched again.
Sadowski, an Arlington, Mass., native, has had a strong season. It would be quite the feat if he hit 80 before the NEPSAC playoffs.
5. Can Brendan Giles hit 40 goals?
While Sadowski leads the region in points, Giles leads in goals with 38, although the KUA star is right behind him with 36. Brunswick has one scheduled game left against Trinity-Pawling. The Ridgefield, Conn., native could easily pot two in the final regular season game. He also could pot a couple in the Elite 8, which would bring him to 40.
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The last prep player to hit 40 goals was Kimball Union's Sullivan Mack in 2019-20 when he potted 44. Prior to that, it was O'Brien in 2017-18 with 43. Still, to have a 40-goal scorer and someone with 80 points would be a rare occurrence for prep.
