In April, I ran the numbers to figure out how many players drafted straight out of New England prep since 2010 actually made it to the NHL and AHL.
It took a long time. Google Sheets, countless Elite Prospects pages and using a calculator to add up all the games played and points for every league every player had ever been in.
I was told there would be no math.
After the story was published, my mind wandered to the bigger picture. What about Minnesota?
The Massachusetts vs. Minnesota rivalry has raged since the early days of hockey in the United States. Both have vastly different models for youth hockey and the route to the pros. Both claim to have advantages over the other. Both are prideful.
But for this exercise, I wanted to compare two equitable systems. Massachusetts high school hockey vs. Minnesota high school hockey would be equivalent to me being tasked with defending David Pastrnak 1-on-1.
The real battle, however, is New England prep vs. Minnesota high school.
Some ground rules: I kept the same parameters for New England as for Minnesota. All players evaluated were included on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings from 2010-2025. They also had to be listed on Central Scouting with their New England prep school or Minnesota High School.
Someone like current NHLer Brock Boeser starred for Burnsville (Minn.) High from 2012-14. But Boeser played his draft year in 2014-15 with the USHL's Waterloo Black Hawks, so he's not included in this. The same goes for a local like Will Smith (Lexington, Mass.).
I also didn't include players in the percentage stats listed below who haven't yet made it to college or finished college yet.
Mason West is a phenom and a freak athlete. The Chicago Blackhawks snagged him out of Edina (Minn.) High School in 2025 with a late first-round pick. But for as good as he is, there's no way to tell what he will be come the NHL given he hasn't even started playing at Michigan State yet.
Here is the breakdown of stats. We'll start with New England as a refresher, before breaking out the Minnesota numbers. On Tuesday, we'll break these numbers down.
New England prep
- 157 prep players were on NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings from 2010 to 2025. Three of those players — Neil Shea, Joey Daccord and Tyler Wood — were in NHL Central Scouting’s rankings while on a prep team in two seasons. So it’s 157 total submissions, but 154 actual players.
- 61 of those 157 were drafted straight from prep; eight were drafted in the following seasons after having gone undrafted in prep.
- Of those 61, 11 are ineligible because they are in college hockey or haven’t yet reached it. Therefore…
- 50 players drafted from prep is our sample size for drafted players
- 95 of those 157 were on NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings and not drafted
- Seven were later drafted
- 87 of the 95 never got drafted
- 21 of the undrafted players are still in college or haven’t arrived in college yet. Therefore…
- 74 players who have gone undrafted from prep are eligible for this study
Minnesota high school
- 152 Minnesota high school players were on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings from 2010 to 2025. Two of those players — Adam Johnson and Jack Jensen — were in NHL Central Scouting's rankings while on a high school team in two seasons. So it's 152 total submissions, but 150 actual players.
- 71 of the 152 were drafted straight from high school; seven were drafted in the following seasons after having gone undrafted in Minnesota high school hockey
- Of those 71, 12 are ineligible for not having made it to college or still being in college
- 59 players drafted from Minnesota high school hockey are our sample size
- 81 of those 152 were on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings while in high school but were not drafted
- Seven were later drafted
- 74 of the 81 were never drafted
- 20 are ineligible for not having made it to college or still being in college
- 61 players who have gone undrafted from Minnesota high school hockey are eligible for this study
Lots of numbers. Let's compare and contrast.
Drafted players who have played at least one NHL game
- New England: 34 percent of the 50 players drafted straight from prep have played at least one NHL game
- Minnesota: 32.20 percent of the 59 players drafted straight from Minnesota High School hockey have played at least one NHL game
Overall, Minnesota High School has had more drafted players than New England (71 vs. 62), and of the eligible players for the study, Minnesota had more who have played at least one NHL game (19 vs. 17).
But of the eligible players for this study, a higher percentage of New England prep-drafted players have played an NHL game.
Minnesota High School-drafted players have the overwhelming advantage in NHL games played. Among those drafted since 2010, Minnesota leads New England, 4,485 to 3,271.
Minnesota High School has 10 drafted players who have played at least 100 games in the NHL: Brock Nelson (1,001 games), Nick Bjugstad (821), Casey Mittelstadt (509), Justin Holl (405), Will Borgen (373), Noah Cates (317), Dylan Samberg (282), Dominic Toninato (197), Wyatt Kaiser (175) and Jackson Blake (162).
New England prep isn't far behind with eight: Kevin Hayes (805 games), Miles Wood (576), Ryan Donato (565), Sam Lafferty (376), Michael Kesselring (190), Joey Daccord (173), Jayden Struble (171) and Jordan Harris (171).
READ MORE: 15 men’s college hockey recruiting takeaways from the last few weeks
Drafted players who have played at least one AHL game
- New England: 80 percent of the 50 players drafted straight from prep have played at least one AHL game
- Minnesota: 67.79 percent of the 59 players drafted straight from Minnesota High School hockey have played at least one NHL game
New England prep and Minnesota High School hockey have the same number of players who played at least one game in the AHL: 40. Still, the percentage is higher with New England prep players.
Obviously, there's quite a bit of crossover with players who have at least one NHL game and one AHL game.
An interesting name is Riley Tufte. The former Blaine (Minn.) High School star was picked 25th overall by the Dallas Stars in 2016. So far, he has 28 NHL games to his name and 395 in the AHL. He's become a very productive player in the AHL, most recently for the Providence Bruins over the last two seasons.
Undrafted players who have played at least one NHL game
- New England: 6.7 percent of those who went undrafted out of prep played at least one NHL game
- Minnesota: 8.3 percent of those who went undrafted out of Minnesota High School hockey played at least one NHL game
This is where Minnesota High School hockey has a clear advantage. Both have five apiece, but there are more undrafted players among New England prep.
And the names are more well-known in Minnesota: Neal Pionk (587 games), Alex Lyon (149), Scott Perunovich (108), Adam Johnson (13) and Justin Kloos (two). Perunovich was eventually drafted in his final year of eligibility, going in the second round to the St. Louis Blues in 2018.
Pionk has become a reliable, steady NHL defenseman, while Lyon is a fringe starter who is fresh off a strong showing in the playoffs this past spring. Perunovich won a Hobey Baker Award with Minnesota-Duluth and has spent considerable time in the NHL.
In New England prep, it's Jimmy Vesey (626 games), Gavin Bayreuther (122), Billy Sweezey (nine), Aidan McDonough (six) and Marshall Rifai (three). Vesey and McDonough went undrafted out of prep, but were eventually drafted.
It's wild that Pionk was passed on three straight times and has carved out a regular NHL role.
Undrafted players who have played at least one AHL game
- New England: 31.08 percent of players who went undrafted out of prep played at least one AHL game
- Minnesota: 30 percent of players who went undrafted out of prep played at least one AHL game
Back in the original, New England-centric story, I wrote that it was stark to see that a drafted player out of prep has roughly as good a chance at playing in the NHL as an undrafted player out of prep has at playing in the AHL.
Adding in Minnesota High School's numbers supports that, with 32.20 percent of players drafted straight out of Minnesota high schools playing at least one NHL game, while roughly 30 percent of undrafted players suited up for at least one AHL game.
READ MORE: What is Masters Academy's plan for boys hockey? What's different?
Comparing the picks by round
New England prepÂ
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- Round 1 (two): Kevin Hayes (2010), Jay O'Brien (2018)
- Round 2 (three): Brian Hart (2012), Ryan Donato (2014), Jayden Struble (2019)
- Round 3 (nine): Chris Calnan (2012), Miles Gendron (2014), Mike Robinson (2015), Reilly Walsh (2017), Jordan Harris (2018), John Farinacci (2019), Ian Moore (2020), Michael Fisher (2022), Ben MacDonald (2022)
- Round 4 (10): Patrick McNally (2010), Tim Boyle (2012), Adam Gilmour (2012), Ryan Segalla (2013), Miles Wood (2013), Sam Lafferty (2014), Tyce Thompson (2017), Jack Rathbone (2017), Cade Webber (2019), Alex Jefferies (2020)
- Round 5 (13): Cody Ferriero (2010), Rob O'Gara (2011), Philippe Hudon (2011), Doyle Somerby (2012), Danny O'Regan (2012), Wiley Sherman (2013), Tyler Bird (2014), Max Willman (2014), Luke Stevens (2015), Patrick Harper (2016), Cooper Moore (2019), Michael Callow (2022), Everett Baldwin (2025)
- Round 6 (16): Nicholas Luukko (2010), Petr Placek (2011), Stephen Michalek (2011), Joey Dudek (2014), Jake Massie (2015), David Cotton (2015), Peter Dilberatore (2018), Michael Kesselring (2018), Tomas Mazura (2019), Braden Doyle (2019), Lucas Mercuri (2020), Riley Duran (2020), Chris Romaine (2022), Rudy Guimond (2023), Sean Keohane (2023), Ben Merrill (2024)
- Round 7 (eight): Martin Ouellette (2010), Colin Sullivan (2011), Matthew Beattie (2012), Joey Daccord (2015), Riley Hughes (2018), James Fisher (2022), Brennan Ali (2022), Grayden Robertson-Palmer (2025)
Minnesota High SchoolÂ
- Round 1 (Six): Brock Nelson (2010), Nick Bjugstad (2010), Riley Tufte (2016), Casey Mittelstadt (2017), Sam Rinzel (2022), Mason West (2025)
- Round 2 (Seven): Justin Holl (2010), Mark Alt (2010), Mario Lucia (2011), Connor Hurley (2013), Thomas Vannelli (2013), Dylan Samberg (2017), Jack Peart (2021)
- Round 3 (Nine): Max Gaede (2010), Max Gardiner (2010), Kyle Rau (2011), Steven Fogarty (2011), Teemu Kivihalme (2013), Jake Boltmann (2020), Wyatt Kaiser (2020), Blake Vanek (2025), Cooper Simpson (2025)
- Round 4 (17): Joe Faust (2010), Joseph Labate (2010), Will Borgen (2015), Demetrios Koumontzis (2018), Jackson Perbix (2018), Ryder Donovan (2019), Aaron Huglen (2019), Jack Smith (2020), Blake Biondi (2020), Brody Lamb (2021), Jackson Blake (2021), Daimon Gardner (2022), Hampton Slukynsky (2023), Jayson Shaugabay (2023), Hagen Burrows (2024), Javon Moore (2024), Brent Solomon (2025)
- Round 5 (15): Caleb Herbert (2010), Tony Cameranesi (2011), Dominic Toninato (2012), William Besse (2013), Miguel Fidler (2014), Tyler Nanne (2014), Luc Snuggerud (2014), Mitchell Mattson (2016), Noah Cates (2017), Rhett Pitlick (2019), Michael Koster (2019), Mason Langenbrunner (2020), Zam Plante (2022), Alex Bump (2022), Chase Cheslock (2023)
- Round 6 (Seven): Zane Gothberg (2010), Edward Wittchow (2011), Avery Peterson (2013), Steven Spinner (2014), Benton Maass (2017), Joe Miller (2020), Kyle Kukkonen (2021)
- Round 7 (10): Christian Isackson (2010), Max Everson (2011), Louis Nanne (2012), Jake Bischoff (2012), Jack Becker (2015), Jack Sadek (2015), Nick Leivermann (2017), Robbie Stucker (2017), Luke Loheit (2018), Bryce Brodzinski (2019)
