My head is still spinning from all those numbers in Monday's story highlighting the differences between New England prep hockey and Minnesota high school hockey in producing NHL Draft talent.
Now, it's time to break it all down.
When I began this project, I thought Minnesota high school hockey would have fewer high-end guys, but way more draft picks. I found out, however, that they appear to have more high-end talent, but the number of draft picks is pretty similar.
Maybe at some point we analyze Massachusetts natives vs. Minnesota natives in the NHL Draft. I need a little break before that, though.
But for now, let's dive into some takeaways.
Minnesota high schools have produced more high-end NHL talent
Sorry, New England prep hockey fans, but it's true. Minnesota high schools have beaten New England prep 13-5 in first- and second-round picks since 2010, and the games-played gap is stark.
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That's because Minnesota high schools have churned out players like Brock Nelson, who has over 1,000 games and has been one of the better players in the NHL since entering full-time in 2013. Casey Mittelstadt and Will Borgen, both current Boston Bruins, and Nick Bjugstad have been consistent NHLers for some time. Even youngsters like Noah Cates and Jackson Blake have become steady, full-time NHL forwards. Cates just set a career-high in points (47), and Blake is fresh off posting 20 points in 19 NHL playoff games en route to a Stanley Cup.
Kevin Hayes, who was drafted in 2010, is New England prep's biggest claim to fame over the last 15 years. Miles Wood has been an effective bottom-six forward over his career, while Ryan Donato (Sciutate, Mass.) has come into his own as an effective scorer. New England prep's best bet for the next five years is defenseman Michael Kesselring, who looks to become a top-four stalwart for the San Jose Sharks.
I also find it interesting that in 2010, Nelson, Bjugstad and Hayes were all selected in the first round. I'm going to assume that's the last time a current Minnesota high school player and a New England prep player are taken in Round 1. More on that later.
Being drafted and playing an NHL game vs. going undrafted and playing an AHL game
It shocked me that across both New England prep and Minnesota high school, the numbers were similar for this.
If you were drafted out of prep, you have a 34 percent chance of playing at least one NHL game. If you were drafted out of Minnesota high school, you have a 32.20 percent chance of playing at least one NHL game.
If you went undrafted out of prep, you have a 31.08 percent chance of playing at least one AHL game. If you went undrafted out of Minnesota high school, you have a 30 percent chance of playing at least one AHL game.
This does make sense, however, when put in perspective. NHL organizations will typically do whatever they can to give drafted prospects ample opportunity.
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For undrafted players out of Minnesota high school and New England prep, there is always the option to get picked in junior hockey or college — and that happens. But that's not what happens to most players who don't get drafted in their first year of eligibility.
Agents will often say they'd rather a prospect go undrafted than be picked by an undesirable destination in the sixth or seventh round. While that's good for players who thrive after not being picked and are high-end college free agents, that's far from the norm.
New England prep has the slight edge in percentage of players getting NHL and AHL games
Minnesota high school hockey has most of the advantages in our findings, but New England prep had a slight edge in percentage of players getting NHL games (34 percent vs. 32.20 percent) and AHL games (80 percent vs. 67.79 percent).
Those advantages aren't big enough to declaratively say that New England prep develops better than Minnesota high school. That said, one rationale could be that there were more drafted Minnesota players eligible for our study (59) than New England prep (50). And since the majority of those players were mid- and late-round picks, the chances of them hitting are small to begin with.
The big caveat
The biggest underlying caveat is that the majority of Minnesota high school teams are made up of players from that town or city, whereas New England prep schools can mostly pick from everywhere. Sure, some day schools, like Dexter Southfield, can only take students who can drive to campus every day. But make no mistake — players within an hour of Dexter (and sometimes even further) have no problem doing the commute.
And then there are boarding schools like Salisbury that pull from all over North America. Increasingly, New England prep schools are pulling from hockey players all over the world.
That is a clear advantage for the preps over Minnesota high school teams, making it impressive that Minnesota high school has the advantage in many of the statistics.
How does this develop?
If this study were done from 1994-2009, the numbers would look a lot different. Players stayed and played for their New England prep and Minnesota high school hockey teams more back then.
But times are different and have changed quite a bit over the last 15 years.
North American players are choosing junior hockey earlier than ever. That's in part due to the rush to prove themselves for a Division 1 commitment. But it's also because of life since the CHL ruling, giving QMJHL, OHL and WHL players NCAA eligibility.
There are more options. When one player goes, the rest tend to follow — and that's what's happening.
It has certainly hit New England prep. And, as we've covered extensively, NHL scouts and teams will often go for prep players later in the draft (or wait until those players hit juniors).
And because players are leaving earlier, they're often not playing their draft year in prep.
READ MORE: New England vs. Minnesota: Who produces more NHL talent?
Minnesota high school is undergoing similar aftershocks, but not to the same extent because there is a deep-seated culture of playing for your hometown.
Will that last forever? Probably not. I'm no expert on Minnesota high school hockey, but if I had to guess, that culture will slowly erode as players leave for juniors at higher rates over time.
