A lot was made about the steps schools like Hotchkiss and St. Sebastian's took last season, going from six-win teams to being firmly in the Elite 8.
But a more normal, realistic jump came from St. Paul's.
St. Paul's went from a team with win totals of nine, eight, 12 and 12 from 2021-25 to an 18-win squad in the Large School tournament last season.
By all accounts, it was a huge season for a program that hadn't made a tournament appearance since 2018-19. But third-year head coach Scott Harff was mostly excited about what last season should bode for the future.
"We've always had incredible kids here, and I'm really lucky that St. Paul's attracts kids who want the holistic experience," Harff said. "I think we got over the hump of now we're able to get kids who not only want a good hockey experience, but they're really driven to take the next step and play college hockey."
Harff has taken a unique approach to cultivating a program at St. Paul's, opting for a player-driven approach (more on that in a bit).
But if the Big Red can keep drawing in top talent, a new power may be forming in the Lakes Region.
Zoomed-out view
When Harff began as a young assistant at Trinity-Pawling and then moved to St. Paul's to be an assistant under then-head coach Danny Murphy, he wanted to be all about systems. A great neutral zone trap, a certain kind of defense, set forechecks — tactical coaching.
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He quickly realized that wasn't going to work.
"It doesn't matter what system you play," Harff said. "Do the kids want to play for another? Do they believe in what you're asking them to go do?"
So Harff tried something new. In the spring, he meets with returning leaders, and they pick the values they want to live by the next season. Last year, they were united, devoted and resilient. This year, it's brotherhood, devoted and resilient.
"The kids take a lot more ownership of those values and living them because it was their idea," Harff said. "As opposed to me sitting there and saying, 'You have to be resilient.' This generation, when they have that buy-in because they created it, they just take it and run with it."
Last season, when St. Paul's might be down in a game, it was the players on the bench and in the dressing room reminding each other to be resilient and strive for those values.
Harff didn't need to be all over them.
"You're holding them accountable, but they get to it a lot quicker themselves when they have that buy-in because they've created it," Harff said. "It's not that the kids are doing everything, but we want to challenge them to think critically about what they want."
The last few years
St. Paul's had previously been one of the middling teams in the Lakes Region. Even though the Big Red made a tournament appearance in 2018-19, that was only their fourth and final winning season of the decade.
The coach
Harff played at St. Paul's from 2006-09 before doing a season at Brown. He left Brown after 2009-10 to play at Colby College, where he was a captain as a senior in 2012-13. He played two seasons for the SPHL's Huntsville Havoc before retiring.
He was an assistant at Trinity-Pawling from 2018-22 before moving to St. Paul's to be an assistant under Murphy from 2022-24. This is his third season as head coach.
Who will the stars be?
If St. Paul's becomes a consistent winner, people will look back to these years as the beginning.
And forward Mitch Smith is certain to come up. Smith exploded for a team-high 15 goals and 36 points last season after putting up 22 points as a sophomore the year before. He's back for a senior year.
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"He's genuinely one of the most competitive people I've ever coached," Harff said. "He takes everything personally in a really good way. That's a kid who is going to win his one-on-one matchups just out of pure tenacity. And he has the skills to back it all up."
Another name that will likely come up is defenseman James Buchan, who is also back for his senior year despite signing with the OHL's Peterborough Petes.
The mobile, two-way defender had four goals and 23 points last season.
"I think he's going to be one of the best defensemen in prep this year," Harff said. "He's a difference-maker in that when the puck is on his stick, the pace of the game settles down. He closes really fast on defense. He has incredible feet, and he's an incredible leader."
Smith and Buchan won't have to do anything alone. Up front, seniors Finian Kilbourne (Duxbury, Mass.), Callum Green and Ryan Vohra should all be top-six regulars, while seniors Chay Simons and Colin O'Leary (Winthrop, Mass.) will supplement Buchan on the back end.
Newcomers
Harff was fortunate this year. With St. Paul's returning several big names, he didn't have to bring in too many newbies.
In net, Kayden Nathu, an '11, arrived. The Quebec native played with the Montreal Nationals M15 squad last winter.
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"He'll be a really exciting guy to look forward to in a year or two," Harff said.
Another '11 who should begin to make an impact is forward Gavin Touhy, who arrives from the North Jersey Avalanche.
"He's been really good in the fall," Harff said. "It will be fun to get him worked in, and he'll be a big piece of our team for the three years after this."
Former Portsmouth Abbey forward Theo Lee transferred to St. Paul's for this season, while Collin Kelly has arrived from the P.A.L. Junior Islanders.
Breakout prospects
Then-senior goalie Blake Truchon got the most time in net last season and posted a strong 2.53 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage.
But '08 Matteo Vessella saw plenty of time, too, and notched a 2.08 GAA and a .924 save percentage.
He projects as the full-time starter this season, and has the biggest chance to break out.
"I think people will be surprised at how good he is," Harff said. "Everyone just looked at Truchon as the backbone of our team last year, and he was. But we had another guy there who could've been the backbone of our team, too."
On defense, Kelly, a 6-foot-3 defenseman, should step into the top-four and play impactful minutes.
Green and Kilbourne both notched 21 points apiece, while Vohra had 16 last season. All three should be poised to break out for more.
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The ceiling
St. Paul's goal is to be playing its best hockey come March, which is fair. That's their hope and expectation.
Realistically, this team should be a higher seed in the Large School tournament this season. And I wouldn't be stunned if they contended for a spot in the Elite 8.
