We're down to crunch time in the prep school hockey schedule. The last games of the regular season are this weekend before the big stakes lie ahead.
The season wraps Saturday, with Loomis Chaffee visiting Avon Old Farms at 7 p.m. as the last scheduled game.
And then, ultimately, three titles beckon.
But there's more going into figuring out the top teams heading into the prep school playoffs than just checking out the latest version of New England Hockey Journal Prep School Coaches Poll.
Plus, we should know Sunday who's in the Stuart/Corkery Elite 8, and who's left for the Martin/Earl Large and Piatelli/Simmons Small school brackets.
Below are some of the biggest storylines approaching the New England prep school hockey playoffs.
Status report: Kimball Union vs. Salisbury redux
Short answer: A rematch between the Elite 8 finalists the last two seasons in a row is not looking promising.
Longer answer: Salisbury has continued where it left off, poised with a strong 20-3-1 record heading into the final weekend. And Kimball Union is no slouch, either, bringing a 21-6-2 record down the stretch. But even though KUA has more wins on the season and is the triple Elite 8 defending champion, those who have seen them play are sour on their chances: our most recent coaches poll has them sixth, while the Crimson Knights were No. 1 until after last weekend and now reside tied for third.
Fearless prediction: It all depends on how the Elite 8 shakes out on Sunday, of course, but regardless, don't expect both teams to roll all the way to the finals. Best bet is it will be one or the other, with the momentum nod right now going to Andrew Will's Crimson Knights. (*KUA coach Tim Whitehead puts story on bulletin board.*)
Can Avon Old Farms close the deal?
Short answer: Looking good. Looking really, really good.
Longer answer: Coach John Gardner has his team locked and loaded. The Winged Beavers (22-2) score at will, the players are all buying into the system, and they are getting scoring from up and down the lineup. This is a team built for the hard haul of the playoffs. The only concern is if the injury bug hits and somehow hurts the team's depth over the intense run that is the prep school playoffs. But, frankly, that is a more of a concern for teams not as deep as Avon.
Fearless prediction:Â Even though teams that utterly dominate the season in other leagues sometimes stumble in the spotlight of the playoffs, Gardner's team will go all the way to the finals and emerge as the champions for the ninth time in school history.
The team's speed, defense and discipline appear to be just too much for most teams. (See: Dominant shutout wins over talented teams Salisbury, Loomis Chaffee, Kent, Gunnery.) As long as they don't open the playoffs like they opened their own tournament this season (a 3-1 stumble to Kent), they should be good.
Which team is coming in hot?
Short answer: Lawrence Academy, Avon Old Farms.
Longer answer: Since you know the Avon Old Farms story (riding a nine-game winning streak), let's focus here on Lawrence and its monster 11-game unbeaten streak heading into the final weekend. Coach Robbie Barker has his club firing on all cylinders, led by star prospect Riley Duran (Woburn, Mass.) and linemate David Sacco (Middleton, Mass.). The potent pair will be expected to pace the 20-2-2 Spartans to big things.
Fearless prediction: Lawrence Academy doesn't seem to be letting up and has kind of gone under the radar in some circles. Count on this team to put a heavy push to the Elite 8 finals.
How much does scoring matter?
Short answer: More than you'd think.
Longer answer: The offensive juggernauts in prep hockey aren't necessarily rewarded with wins. Of Dexter Southfield, New Hampton, Cushing, Kimball Union and Milton, only Dexter and Kimball have been consistent top 10 teams this season. But that all changes in the playoffs, when offense becomes even more important -- and difficult -- to generate.
Fearless prediction: Count on a surprise or two from New Hampton, Cushing and Milton in the playoffs, as they continue their scoring ways while other teams sputter if they decide to go defense-first. These teams might even win a blowout or two, but it will be how they perform in the close games on the road that will determine their fates.
Players to watch
Short answer:Â There is no short answer here.
Long answer: Riley Duran, C, Lawrence; Alex Jefferies, LW, Gunnery; Marcus Joughin, C, Isaac McLeod, W, New Hampton; Jake Percival, C, Millbrook; Lukas Gustafsson, D, Cushing; Ian Moore, D, St. Mark's; Henry Wilder, G, Hotchkiss; Connor Callaghan, G, Avon Old Farms
Fearless prediction: The forwards on that list will be counted on to score, the defensemen will be counted on to score and stop the scoring, and the goalies will be counted on to stop the puck. Simple, yeah?
More specifically, if the forwards can bust through the extra coverage they'll see, it will make the difference for not only their teams, but also for their prospect/draft stock, where applicable. A lot is riding on those players to score when the stakes are higher and the coverage more smothering.
In the case of Wilder, he'll have to be his steady and spectacular self to push through against tougher opposition Hotchkiss will surely face.
In Callaghan's case, isolating the goalie on the speedy and offensively potent Winged Beavers might seem odd, but if he falters at all -- and there's no indication he will, as he's been rock-solid steady in several viewings this season -- it could be the only glitch on a very deep Avon Old Farms team.
No pressure, boys.
Paul Grant is an editor and a writer for HockeyJournal.com and Seamans Media. He previously oversaw hockey content at ESPN.com and Sporting News. You can connect with him at pgrant@hockeyjournal.com.
