So much has changed in the Elite 8 picture in just the last day, let alone the last week or two.
On Wednesday, two teams who were on the outside looking in came through with huge wins.
First, Deerfield handed Williston Northampton, the region's top team, its first loss of the season in a 2-1 upset. A couple hours later, Groton climbed back into the Elite 8 with a 4-1 upset at Thayer.
As of Wednesday night, Nos. 1-8 in the Elite 8 were: Williston, Dexter Southfield, Loomis Chaffee, Nobles, Phillips Andover, Cushing, Groton and Thayer. The day's chaos pushed BB&N out of the Elite 8 to No. 2 in the Large School tournament, while Deerfield stayed put at No. 1 in the Large School bracket.
But come Thursday afternoon, the algorithm shifted dramatically. Thayer had fallen to No. 1 in the Large School, and Deerfield slid to No. 2. In the Elite 8, the top five didn't change. However, BB&N jumped back to No. 6, ahead of Cushing and Groton. USHR projects all of that to stand through the final weekend.
That doesn't mean things can't change between now and the brackets coming out on Sunday. There are several massive head-to-head matchups, so what's at stake on Friday and Saturday?
Let's take a look at what's at stake for each team on the bubble.
I should preface all of this with something we've said on the RinkWise podcast a few times: we don't know the full ins and outs of the JSPR algorithm (which doesn't factor in the Lakes Region playoffs).
First, let's start with the fields in each tournament.
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Chuck Vernon Elite 8 Tournament
- Current No. 1: Williston Northampton | Projected No. 1: Williston Northampton
- Current No. 2: Dexter Southfield | Projected No. 2: Loomis Chaffee
- Current No. 3: Loomis Chaffee | Projected No. 3: Dexter Southfield
- Current No. 4: Nobles | Projected No. 4: Nobles
- Current No. 5: Phillips Andover | Projected No. 5: Phillips Andover
- Current No. 6: BB&N | Projected No. 6: BB&N
- Current No. 7: Cushing | Projected No. 7: Cushing
- Current No. 8: Groton | Projected No. 8: Groton
Patsy Odden Large School Tournament
- Current No. 1: Thayer | Projected No. 1: Thayer
- Current No. 2: Deerfield | Projected No. 2: Deerfield
- Current No. 3: Berkshire | Projected No. 3: Berkshire
- Current No. 4: Phillips Exeter | Projected No. 4: Phillips Exeter
- Current No. 5: Tabor | Projected No. 5: Tabor
- Current No. 6: St. Paul's| Projected No. 6: Kent
- Current No. 7: Kent| Projected No. 7: St. Paul's
- Current No. 8: Milton Academy | Projected No. 8: Milton Academy
Dorothy Howard Small School Tournament
- Current No. 1: New Hampton | Projected No. 1: New Hampton
- Current No. 2: Rivers | Projected No. 2: Rivers
- Current No. 3: Governor's | Projected No. 3: Governor's
- Current No. 4: Lawrence Academy | Projected No. 4: Lawrence Academy
- Current No. 5: St. Mark's | Projected No. 5: St. Mark's
- Current No. 6: St. George's | Projected No. 6: St. George's
- Current No. 7: Mount Saint Charles | Projected No. 7: Mount Saint Charles
- Current No. 8: Frederick Gunn | Projected No. 8: Frederick Gunn
BB&N (17-7-2)
Remaining schedule:Â at Thayer, Feb. 28, 5 p.m. | vs. Williston, March 1, 1:30 p.m.
Since a shaky 3-6-1 stretch from Dec. 22 through Feb. 1, BB&N has been one of the stronger teams in prep. Since Feb. 5, they're winners in eight of nine (8-1-0) with wins over Phillips Exeter, St. George's, Tabor and Cushing and the only loss coming against Nobles.
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The Knights look to be in control of their own destiny now that they're No. 6 in the current and projected Elite 8 field.
They already have the inside track over Thayer, so a head-to-head win on Friday should be enough to keep them in the Elite 8 tournament. If the Knights drop Friday's matchup, they'll have one last gasp if they can upset No. 1 Williston.
Cushing (23-7-1)
Remaining schedule:Â vs. Choate, March 1, 4:30 p.m.
The Penguins have lacked consistency since Jan. 29, going 5-5-1 . The wins include triumphs over BB&N and Deerfield, while there are losses to Dexter, Loomis Chaffee, Nobles, Phillips Andover and BB&N as well as a tie with New Hampton.
A head-to-head win over Deerfield last week was a major boost to their Elite 8 chances, as was a manageable schedule this week with wins over Milton Academy and Tilton. One final game remains against Choate, who Cushing should beat. They can't overlook Choate, though, who will likely still be fighting for the final spot in the Large School tournament.
Groton (16-4-2)
Remaining schedule:Â vs. St. Mark's, March 1, 2 p.m.
Recently slated to be No. 1 in the Small School bracket, Groton finds itself in control of its destiny in the Elite 8 after Wednesday's win over Thayer.
The Zebras have won three straight and 10 of 11 games since Jan. 22. It's been quite a surge back into the picture since going 1-3-2 around the holidays.
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One game remains against St. Mark's. Barring any craziness between Thayer and BB&N as well as BB&N and Williston, I'd imagine a win over St. Mark's gets it done for Groton.
Thayer (19-4-2)
Remaining schedule:Â vs. BB&N, Feb. 28, 5 p.m.
The Tigers looked like they were in the driver's seat after upsetting Nobles last weekend, which was a big bounce back from a loss to Lawrence Academy the previous weekend. But Wednesday's chaos spelled trouble.
With just BB&N remaining, Thayer needs a head-to-head win over the Knights. A BB&N loss to Williston (or a Groton loss to St. Mark's) is likely key for their chances, too.
Deerfield (17-5-2)
Remaining schedule:Â at Loomis Chaffee, March 1, 4 p.m.
The Big Green's chances took a major hit after losing to Berkshire on Feb. 15 and Cushing on Feb. 19. They've bounced back with three straight wins, and took a huge win over Williston on Wednesday.
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The win over Williston likely would have done more to boost their Elite 8 chances if it weren't for Groton's win over Thayer.
Deerfield's last gasp is against Loomis Chaffee on Saturday. The Big Green need to pull off an upset and get some help elsewhere around the region.
