Going into the NEPSAC boys hockey tournaments, I said that the Large School field had the most opportunity for volatility.
The quarterfinal games were close. No. 1 Tabor fended off No. 8 Choate, 2-1. No. 2 Cushing beat No. 2 Deerfield, 2-1, in overtime. Meanwhile, No. 3 Phillips Andover had the most lopsided score, taking down No. 6 St. Paul's, 5-1. And No. 4 Brunswick took down No. 5 Thayer, 2-1.
Fully chalk. But will it stay that way?
I nailed all but one of the picks. I tried to pick an upset in St. Paul's. Phillips Andover must've used that as bulletin board material.
The semifinal matchups project to be close.
Let's dive in.
No. 1 Tabor vs. No. 4 Brunswick
I'm going to keep this analysis really simple: This game will come down to whether or not Brunswick can score on Tabor goalie Vinnie D'Urso (Andover, Mass.).
The Bruins have the horses up front with seniors Mason St. Louis (Old Greenwich, Conn.) and Ben Lombardi (Cos Cob, Conn.), as well as junior Keegan Kazan (Wilton, Conn.). Junior James Jackson (Darien, Conn.), senior Owen Gibbons (Southport, Conn.) and sophomore Colton Cleaves (Riverside, Conn.) have been vital to the scoring punch, too.
BOYS BRACKETS: Elite 8 field | Large School field | Small School field
But Brunswick has struggled against good goaltending. Against goalies with a minimum save percentage of .920 and a goals-against average of 2.30, Brunswick is 2-5-0. Those two wins were a 1-0 win against Williston Northampton and a 2-1 win against Thayer, which came on Wednesday.
D'Urso is fresh off making 40 saves to beat Choate. Mix him with Tabor's physical defenders, and that doesn't bode well for Brunswick.
Prediction:Â Tabor wins, 2-0.
No. 2 Cushing vs. No. 3 Phillips Andover
These two teams just played, with Phillips Andover eeking out a 1-0 win on Feb. 18. That was a goalie duel, with Cushing's Mason Raycroft (Wellesley, Mass.) making 23 stops, while Andover senior Eduoard Lord showed out with 36 stops. That game likely prevented Cushing from making the Elite 8.
Both teams are playing their best hockey at the right time. The Big Blue are 5-0-1 in their last six. Cushing is 10-2-1 in its last 13 games. Both squads have loads of talent, too.
Cushing boasts high-end players like Blake Cash (Hampton Falls, N.H.), Benjamin Marcolini, Colin Yandle (Dorchester, Mass.) and Chase Warsofsky (Northboro, Mass.). Andover has Michael Barrett (Lynnfield, Mass.), Jack O'Dell, Alex Theodore and Nolan Roberts, not to mention the number of seniors and juniors who are having strong seasons.
READ MORE:Â 32 takeaways from the NEPSAC boys quarterfinals
But Cushing has the edge in goals for (106 to 96) and goals against (76 to 83). And I just don't see Andover beating this Cushing team twice in three weeks.
Prediction:Â Cushing wins, 4-1.
