When Wednesday comes, the New England boys prep Small School Tournament will begin with quarterfinal matchups.
The field is as strong as it's been in a while, especially at the top. At different points of the season, the top five teams had legitimate cases for the Elite 8.
As I write this on Tuesday, teams prepare for their matchup on Wednesday night. But my focus is on making accurate predictions.
My record through the quarterfinals and semis last year was 13-5 but I turned in a 0-3 performance on championship day. I'll keep it short: I found a new genie to use this season after I was given horrible advice when it mattered most last year.
It's a new tournament. Let's dive in.
FOLLOW THE TOURNAMENTS: Elite 8 | Large School | Small School
No. 1 Kimball Union vs. No. 8 Frederick Gunn
Neither of these teams enter this tournament particularly hot. Kimball Union lost three of four games in late February before winning the Lakes Region playoffs; Frederick Gunn went 4-9-5 after a three-game winning streak in mid January.
Frederick Gunn has some good scoring in postgrad Travis Rugg (Hingham, Mass.), seniors Tyler Kelly (Quincy, Mass.), Ian Kuisis, Will Jackson and Matthew Nacinovich, and juniors Ryan Tartaglione and Tucker Mears. Senior Logan Heideman has had a nice season with a 2.85 GAA and a .905 save percentage.
But Kimball Union has the advantage everywhere. The Wildcats boast the fourth-highest scoring offense (130 goals-for) in the region and the ninth fewest goals allowed (64). Merrimack commit CJ Watroba (West Springfield, Mass.) has led the offense with a plethora of depth behind him in postgrad Zach Phillips, seniors Mickael Tissier, Iain Olsen (Vergennes, Vt.) and Max Kimelman, juniors Josh Phillips and Xander Boutilier and sophomore Rowen Sang. Senior Lucas Siomos is one of the top-scoring defenders in prep and senior Nick Evans (Malden, Mass.) is a two-way force. Senior netminder Blake McMeniman (Revere, Mass.) has a 2.00 GAA and a .914 save percentage.
Is Kimball Union as strong as it was last season? No. But it's still a very, very good team.
Prediction:Â Kimball Union wins, 5-2.
No. 2 Berkshire vs. No. 7 Groton
Groton isn't to be slept on. The Zebras have had some strong stretches of the year and some not-so-strong stretches of the year. While St. Mark's, Rivers and St. George's got most of the headlines in the ISL Eberhart, Groton was always a tough opponent.
Senior forward Zach Baker (Williston, Vt.) provided most of the scoring, finishing with 21 goals and 40 points. Junior Owen Cronan (Ashland, Mass.), and sophomores Nate Moons, Harrison Freelove (Tyngsboro, Mass.) and Rafael Aberbach (Wellesley, Mass.) provided good depth scoring. The Zebras also have a stout defensive core with juniors Kaiden Donia (Townsend, Mass.), Elliot Wood (Newton, Mass.), Connor Wig (Holliston, Mass.) and Alejandro Hassan, as well as freshman Bruce Li. Junior Wes DiModica (Holliston, Mass.) has been very busy in net.
ROUTE TO A TITLE: The path for every Large School team | The path for every Small School team
But Berkshire was a borderline Elite 8 team all season. Outside of a few stretches throughout the season, the Bears mostly took care of business. They're extremely deep up front with seniors Duncan Thompson, Evan Regan (Acton, Mass.), Deven Hikspoors and Luke Matthews, juniors Matt Lacombe (Marlboro, Mass.) and James McMurray, and sophomore Jonah Rainisch. They have a strong defensive core with senior Josh Williams (Boxford, Mass.) and juniors Dominic Somma and Gus Chong.
A huge X-factor for Berkshire has been senior goalie Kyle Bolduc (Bolton, Conn.). The '06 has been outstanding with a 1.92 GAA and a .912 save percentage.
I have Berkshire taking care of business.
Prediction:Â Berkshire wins, 3-0.
No. 3 Holderness vs. No. 6 Pomfret
I was at their only meeting this season, which came on Dec. 19 at the Groton/Lawrence Tournament. Holderness went up 7-1 in the second period before Pomfret tallied four in the third and made things close to lose 7-5.
Pomfret has the horses to keep up (and potentially beat) Holderness with seniors Luke Corrigan (Hudson, Mass.) and Matthew Itzkovitz and juniors Rich Cavanagh (Warwick, R.I.) and Will Norton (Lynnfield, Mass.). In back, seniors Cole Leblanc (Burrillville, R.I.) and Tyler Milrad (Hamden, Conn.), juniors Sean Farrell (Burrillville, R.I.) and Sacred Heart commit Ian Sherman (Brooklyn, Conn.) have been reliable. Junior Joey Mitchell has been strong in net with a 2.61 GAA and a .922 save percentage.
FULL PREVIEW:Â How each team looks heading into the Elite 8
But this Holderness team is coming off being in the Elite 8 after beating Dexter Southfield and then falling out after losing to Kimball Union in the Lakes Region championship on the last day of the regular season. The Bulls are deep and motivated.
Pomfret has had a great season, but Holderness is on another level.
Prediction: Holderness wins, 6-3.
No. 4 Tilton vs. No. 5 St. George's
This is by far the best matchup of the Small School quarterfinals.
St. George's has the edge in high-end talent with senior defensemen Everett Baldwin (East Providence, R.I.) and Marco Senerchia (Greenville, R.I.). Both are committed to Providence. Baldwin also has a very high chance of being taken somewhere in the middle rounds of the NHL Draft this June. Also on defense is senior Nathan Walsh (Mendon, Mass.), who ranks fourth on the team in points with 33. Up front, senior Danny Buckley (Warwick, R.I.) leads the way with 44 points and junior Max Donatelli (Barrington, R.I.) has 37. Both are Division 1 prospects.
But Tilton is older, deeper and a bit more well-rounded. The roster is full of postgraduates. Cam Fahey (Reading, Mass.) leads the team in goals (20) and points (42), while Peter Silverman (Winthrop, Mass.) and Anthony Lampasona (Franklin, Mass.) are right behind him. Senior Jeremy D'Souza, Noah Pineo (North Reading, Mass.) and Kayden Yeaman have been contributors. Postgraduates TJ Michel (Reading, Mass.), Brad Guden (Norfolk, Mass.) and Mason Scanlon, as well as senior Andrew Feldman lead the defense. Junior Matt Wood (Southington, Conn.) has been stout in net with a 2.23 GAA and a .934 save percentage.
PREDICTIONS: Elite 8 quarterfinals | Large School quarterfinals
So, who wins? I have two X-factors.
Goaltending is one. St. George's has struggled in net with junior Dash George and sophomore Tyler King (Hudson, N.H.) both having ups and downs this season. The second is that the Dragons have struggled in the second half, going 4-7-1 down the stretch.
Prediction:Â Tilton wins, 5-4, in overtime.
