With the NEPSAC boys Elite 8 quarterfinals starting Wednesday, that means it's time for some predictions.
I want to remind everyone that I went 13-8 on my NEPSAC boys hockey predictions last season and I'm a believer in constant improvement. So this time around, I'm destined to get all my picks right.
If I pick against your team, you might as well not even show up.
I'm kidding, of course.
This Elite 8 field is difficult to predict. Upsets always happen, but which matchups will provide them? Which upsets will go chalk? The No. 5 to No. 8 seeds in this tournament are very strong teams that could easily pull out a win on Wednesday.
Let's dive into my predictions.
No. 1 Cushing vs. No. 8 St. Sebastian's
I want to pick St. Sebastian's — I want to pick the Arrows so bad. I selected them as my No. 1 team this season, so why not stick to my preseason intuition?
Where the Arrows hold the advantage is high-end offensive talent. Players like Brown commit Matt Cataldo (Norfolk, Mass.), Boston College commit Teddy Mutryn (Norwell, Mass.), potential USNTDP prospect Casey Mutryn (Norwell, Mass.), Harvard commit and potential NHL Draft pick Ben Merrill (Hingham, Mass.)...I could go on.
But Cushing is deeper. Head coach Paul Pearl's four forward lines are all potent; the seven defensemen are strong. The biggest advantage in the whole game is the one Cushing has in net with Marko Bilic.
For the Arrows to win, they would need a high-scoring shootout with a final score like 8-6, 6-5 or 5-4 — one of those games. Cushing is too good defensively to let that happen.
Prediction:Â Cushing wins, 5-3.
No. 2 Kimball Union vs. No. 7 St. George's
It's hard to get a read on St. George's on a stage like this. The Dragons didn't play anyone from the Elite 8 field this season. They never played any of the top ISL Keller teams, going 1-2-1 against Milton (twice), Tabor and Thayer. They have the lowest opponents' winning percentage of any team in the NEPSAC playoffs.
BOYS BRACKETS: Elite 8 Tournament | Large School Tournament | Small School Tournament
Aside from Rivers and St. Mark's, the toughest opponent on St. George's schedule was Dexter Southfield, and the Dragons won, 3-2, with senior goalie Ryder Shea (Framingham, Mass.) making 31 saves.
If St. George's were to pull off the upset over the region's highest-scoring team, it would need to duplicate a similar game plan. Kimball Union has too much scoring talent. The Wildcats also just fell to Proctor in the first round of the Lakes Region Tournament. They're going to be an extra motivated group.
Prediction:Â Kimball Union wins, 3-1.
No. 3 Brunswick vs. No. 6 Salisbury
When Brunswick and Salisbury met on Feb. 14, the Crimson Knights controlled the first two periods, leading, 2-0, entering the third period. But then Brunswick roared back in the final frame, scoring four unanswered goals to win, 4-3 (Salisbury added a 6-on-5 goal late).
I wrote this after the game: "I always find it interesting when teams play each other at the end of the regular season and then again at the start of the postseason. Last year, Milton Academy embarrassed Belmont Hill on Feb. 15, 6-2. The Sextants never forgot that when the two teams faced off in the Elite 8 quarterfinals. Belmont Hill won that game, 7-2. If these two teams meet again, Salisbury will be chomping at the bit to make up for blowing this two-goal lead."
Well, these prep powerhouses are going to meet again. And I still feel the same way.
It's difficult to pick against Brunswick, which may be the most resilient team in the region. But Salisbury has been hot in the second half. And these two teams are so close in skill, I think it's difficult for either to beat the other one twice in a row.
Prediction:Â Salisbury wins, 2-0.
No. 4 Avon Old Farms vs. No. 5 Holderness
Go figure — the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup is the hardest to predict.
Both have sub-.500 opponents' winning percentages. Both recently struggled with games against fellow Elite 8 teams, with Holderness losing to KUA twice in February and Avon Old Farms falling to Salisbury, 5-1, on Feb. 17. Both teams' leading point-getters are postgraduates. Both have a plethora of seniors and juniors leading the way. Both teams have depth up front and on defense.
Holderness has scored the second-most goals in the region (164), while Avon Old Farms has given up the second-fewest goals against (46). The game is also being played at UConn — a neutral site.
BOYS PREVIEWS: Elite 8 Tournament | Large School Tournament | Small School Tournament
In net, there's not a huge difference between Holderness' Ryan Nolan (Hampton, N.H.) and Avon Old Farms' Michael Heinke (Old Saybrook, Conn.) and Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.).
So...can we call it a tie?
Prediction:Â Avon Old Farms wins, 3-2.
