What to make of a regular season in the NESCAC where only three of the league’s 10 teams finished above .500 in league play?
Potential mayhem. But that’s par for this course.
No. 1 Hamilton and No. 2 Trinity enter the conference tournament as favorites, with Colby riding a strong finish into third place. But recent history has taught us that this tournament, which begins with quarterfinal games on Saturday, rarely plays out as projected.
Let’s break down the matchups and players to watch.
NO. 8 CONN. COLLEGE AT NO. 1 HAMILTON (3 p.m.)
Player to watch: John Russo (South Windsor, Conn.), sr., F, Conn. College
Hamilton (17-6-1) has been the most consistent team in the league all season. It tops the charts in most goals scored and fewest goals allowed, so it’s going to take a special effort from the Camels (9-13-2) to pull the upset.
The Continentals boast the league’s leading scorer in sophomore Luke Tchor (15-16-31), its top goalie in senior and Phillips Andover product Charlie Archer (1.41 goals-against average, .940 save percentage), and plenty of quality in between them.
Conn. College has struggled to score goals, especially down the stretch, where it’s managed just eight goals in its last seven games. Russo, who starred at Choate, has won more face-offs than any other player in the league, and his win rate of 57 percent is one pillar of confidence his team can build on.
Prediction: Hamilton, 4-1
NO. 7 MIDDLEBURY AT NO. 2 TRINITY (4 p.m.)
Player to watch: Spencer Korona (Enfield, Conn.), jr., F, Trinity
The defending champion Bantams haven’t been as ruthless as they were last season, when they ran roughshod through the league, but they seem to be hitting a stride, going 4-1-1 to close the regular season.
Goalie Devon Bobak (2.00 GAA, .926 save percentage) gives them a chance to win every time out, but this year’s breakout star has been Korona. From Enfield High School to one of the best players in the NESCAC, he leads the league in assists (23) and is second in points (28).
Middlebury (12-11-1) closed its regular season with an impressive win over Hamilton, but lost both matchups with Trinity by 4-2 scores.
Prediction: Trinity, 4-2
NO. 6 AMHERST AT NO. 3 COLBY (4:30 p.m.)
Player to watch: Cooper Rautenstrauch, fr., G, Colby
You’ve got to like Colby in a close game this season. And this one probably will be.
The Mules (13-5-6) are impressively unbeaten in their last seven, and 4-0 in one-goal games overall.
One reason for that is former Cushing standout Rautenstrauch, who is enjoying a strong debut season (1.96 GAA, .935 save percentage) and is a big reason Colby boasts one of the league’s top defenses.
The consistency hasn’t been there for Amherst (11-11-2), but the Mammoths are riding their best stretch, closing the regular season with wins over Tufts, Middlebury and Williams, the last two on the road.
Prediction: Colby, 3-2
NO. 5 TUFTS AT NO. 4 BOWDOIN (6 p.m.)
Player to watch: Max Resnick, jr., F, Tufts
No team has been tougher to figure this season than Bowdoin (9-12-3), which owns just two wins in its last eight games. Of course, those two wins came against league heavyweights Hamilton and Trinity.
Tufts (10-12-1) hasn’t repeated the form that landed it in last season’s NESCAC title game, but it seems to have righted itself after a nightmarish midseason. Its last game out was a 5-0 win over Bowdoin, its largest margin of victory in more than a year. Leading scorer Resnick (9-10-19) opened the scoring.
Prediction: Tufts, 4-3
@MikeZhe603
mzhe@hockeyjournal.com
