As the 2018 NHL Entry Draft approaches, talk has heated up that Thayer Academy senior center Jay O’Brien could be selected in the first round.
The Hingham, Mass., native put up almost three points per game in prep school hockey this past winter. However, that’s not why the Providence College commit could hear his name called early in Dallas, Texas.
O’Brien is a late ’99, eligible for the first time with the 2000 birth years. He made the most of his chance to wow NHL scouts at the 2017 USHL Fall Classic at the UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex in Cranberry, Pa.
Playing for the USA Hockey NTDP U-18 Team, he scored a goal and added an assist in two games that weekend. It was more than just what he did on the score sheet that made him attractive to NHL scouts.
He displayed the skating and hockey sense necessary to compete at that level. The 18-year-old recovered pucks, made plays, and showed the versatility that many NHL organizations are looking for in prospects who don’t have tremendously high ceilings.
There are two types of prospects that intrigue NHL organizations: One is the player with an incredibly high ceiling, while the other is one who’s more of a sure thing, but with less upside.
O’Brien fits into the latter category.
He can be a second-line center who plays a complete, 200-foot game and can score goals, or he could be a bottom-six center who kills penalties and chips in offensively from time to time. O’Brien is also a high-character prospect who has impressed NHL scouts with his maturity and class off the ice.
“O’Brien will likely be picked in the bottom of the first round or early in the second round,” one NHL Eastern Conference scout said recently. “He really made his mark at the USHL Fall Classic. He didn’t do anything to really stand out as a first-round pick during prep school viewings.”
O’Brien is at his best when he keeps things simple and plays a hard, north-south game. He gets into trouble when he holds onto the puck too long. With his motor and compete, he’s great when he goes hard for pucks, making quick decisions to push the offense.
His skating isn’t elite, but it’s good enough and he’s strong on pucks. As he continues to bulk up, he should only get heavier, especially while learning from coach Nate Leaman and his staff at Providence. That trajectory proved enticing for one NHL scout, whose team is slated to make a selection in the teens.
“We’re picking too high to take him in the first,” the scout said, “but he’ll probably be gone by the time we pick in the second.”
One train of thought is that if O’Brien does go in the first round, it will likely be to an organization with two or more picks in the first round.
The New York Rangers have three first-round picks. Teams with two first-round picks are the Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators. If O’Brien does fall out of the first round, Detroit and the Montreal Canadiens both have two selections in the first seven picks of the second round.
Both New York Islanders’ picks are in the top half of the round and the Senators’ second pick is at No. 22 overall, so that might prove too high to take a gamble on O’Brien. More likely picks include the Rangers at Nos. 26 or 28, or the Blackhawks at No. 27.
With O’Brien slated to play for Leaman at Providence this coming fall, NHL organizations will have to be prepared to let the former prep star develop for at least three years in Hockey East before turning pro.
