The 2021 NCAA Ice Hockey Tournament field will be up for debate like it hasn’t been in years. With coronavirus implications wreaking havoc on college hockey programs and leagues across the country, the Pairwise Rankings are being replaced by a committee.
Further throwing a monkey wrench into figuring out the best teams for the field of 16 is the fact that there were practically no non-conference games during the 2020-21 season. The committee will be tasked with deciding what teams make it with no crossover games.
I have seen only a few games in person, but I’ve watched a lot more games across the country on television and online. The NCHC bubble in December afforded me the opportunity to watch a ton of games from that league, and the Big Ten has had quite a few games televised nationally.
I’m going to break down who should make the NCAA tournament, if I were the only member of the committee. After that, I’ll run down the different views I might have from the committee. Obviously, there are still a handful of games to be played before selection day. The following is my view, based on action that has taken place to date.
Projecting the 2001 NCAA tournament field
Locks
1. North Dakota (17-4-1)
I watched a lot of the Fighting Hawks in the NCHC bubble. Brad Berry’s team is the best in college hockey this season with a deep and talented lineup. North Dakota has faced the most difficult and grueling schedule of any of the top three teams in the country. North Dakota’s leading scorer is sophomore center Shane Pinto, an Ottawa Senators prospect who played two seasons at South Kent Selects Academy.
2. Boston College (15-3-1)
There certainly is an argument for putting the Eagles ahead of North Dakota. There’s no way Jerry York’s team doesn’t earn a one seed at one of the regionals. The Eagles have proven they are the top team in Hockey East. Sophomore Spencer Knight (Darien, Conn.) is the best goaltender in college hockey and will give BC a leg up in the postseason. A great story emerging out of Chestnut Hill is junior captain Marc McLaughlin. The undrafted North Billerica, Mass., native is leading the team in scoring, surpassing 12 NHL draft picks in doing so. McLaughlin, who played prep hockey at Cushing before heading to the USHL, is slated to attend Boston Bruins development camp this summer.
3. Minnesota (19-5-0)
Like North Dakota and BC, the Golden Gophers have a plethora of elite talent. Bob Motzko’s team has 14 NHL draft picks and has firmly entrenched itself as the top team in the Big Ten. Minnesota has locked up a one seed. Sophomore Ben Meyers has 11 goals and 13 assists, which has put him on the radar of NHL scouts. He’s thought to be one of the top undrafted free agents in all of college hockey.
4. Wisconsin (15-8-1)
The Badgers were below .500 after nine games, but Tony Granato’s team is 11-3-1 since then. The goaltending has been better than most initially thought it would be, but the star is sophomore Cole Caufield. The first-round pick of the Montreal Canadiens has 19 goals and 18 assists for 37 points in 24 games. He’s my clear-cut favorite to win the 2021 Hobey Baker Memorial Award.
5. UMass (11-5-3)
The Minutemen haven’t played since Jan. 30, but are expected to be back on the ice Tuesday night at Providence. Greg Carvel’s team is the second best in Hockey East and has some key ingredients for postseason success. UMass has a good defense, led by New York Rangers pick Zac Jones, and is solid up the middle and in goal.
6. Minnesota State 15-2-1)
The Mavericks haven’t won a NCAA tournament game since Mike Hastings took over before the 2012-13 season, despite some really impressive regular seasons. That has to be hanging over the program’s head in a big way. The team is 5-0-1 at home while still having a positive 10-2-0 record away from Mankato. Junior goaltender Dryden McKay has a .946 save percentage while racking up a national-best eight shutouts.
7. Quinnipiac (14-5-4)
The Bobcats are the top team in ECAC Hockey this winter, but the league has just four teams competing in 2020-21. Rand Pecknold’s group is 8-1-3 over its last 12 after starting just 6-4-1. One concerning aspect of Quinnipiac’s résumé is being swept on home ice against Bowling Green, a team from the WCHA that also is in consideration for a tournament bid. The Bobcats are led by two seniors — forward Odeen Tufto, who has 35 points in 23 games, and Keith Petruzzelli (Wilbraham, Mass.) and his .932 save percentage.
More probable than not
8. St. Cloud State (14-8-0)
The Huskies are in second place in the NCHC. The team is being led offensively by freshman Veeti Miettinen, a Toronto Maple Leafs prospect, and junior defenseman Nick Perbix. The one thing that could trip up Brett Larson’s team is mediocre goaltending.
9. Minnesota Duluth (12-8-2)
The Bulldogs would have been much higher on my list a couple of weeks ago, but they are losers of three straight, including a bad home setback against Colorado College. Still, Scott Sandelin’s program is the two-time defending NCAA champion. UMD is young in two key positions, goaltending and defense, but I wouldn’t count out a Sandelin-coached team in the postseason.
10. Michigan (12-8-0)
The Wolverines host Arizona State for two this weekend before going to Minneapolis to face the Gophers in a weekend set. Michigan lost twice in Ann Arbor against Minnesota earlier in the season. Mel Pearson’s team is young, but there is a boatload of talent, including three freshmen who project to go in the first half of the first round of the 2021 NHL draft. One of those rookies is Hingham, Mass., native Matt Beniers, who was supposed to go to Harvard before the Ivy League canceled its season due to the coronavirus.
11. Omaha (13-8-1)
The Mavericks took a couple on the chin in Grand Forks last weekend. They lost by a combined score of 11-2 and were bloodied, literally and figuratively, in the process. Mike Gabinet’s team will have two more cracks at the Fighting Hawks to conclude the regular season. If those games go as poorly, UNO could be on the outside looking in. For now, I have Omaha making the tournament. The team is five games over .500 against a grueling schedule in the NCHC. The team’s leading scorer is Chayse Primeau, whose brother Cayden was a star goaltender at Northeastern a couple of seasons ago before embarking on his pro career with the Montreal Canadiens.
12. Boston University (9-2-0)
It’s been quite a turnaround for the Terriers. Albie O’Connell’s team has played only 11 games, but it deserves to be in for now. The only two setbacks came against BC and Providence. BU has had to deal with some of the strictest coronavirus protocols in the country. That has cost the team some key players, including Hobey Baker candidate David Farrance and starting goaltender Drew Commesso. Assuming BU can get some bodies back for the stretch run into the Hockey East playoffs, the Terriers should be dancing.
In for now
13. Providence (9-6-4)
There are legitimate excuses this season, due to coronavirus protocols, lack of practices and a myriad of other uncertainties. However, I think Nate Leaman would be the first to tell you his program is above making excuses. That being said, Providence has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Losses to Maine and Merrimack dot the results page, while the team has a couple of notable wins and ties on its résumé. Providence has a young team, but goaltender Jaxson Stauber could be the best player between the pipes for the Friars since Jon Gillies helped them win an NCAA championship in 2015.
14. Bowling Green (17-8-1)
The Falcons’ biggest bullet point on their résumé is a sweep at Quinnipiac early in the season. Going against BGSU is the fact the team lost four in a row prior to last weekend when they came away with a win and tie at Northern Michigan. If Ty Eigner’s team can sweep Alabama-Huntsville to finish out the regular season and put together a decent showing in the WCHA tournament, it should be dancing time.
15. Atlantic Hockey automatic bid
American International (13-3-0), Army West Point (11-5-1) and Robert Morris (14-7-0) appear to be the frontrunners to win the Atlantic Hockey tournament. The Yellow Jackets are probably the only team that would have any argument for making the NCAA tournament with a loss in the conference playoffs.
16. Upset winner of conference tournament
In a single-elimination conference tournament, anything can happen. I’m projecting that one team out of Northeastern (Hockey East), Clarkson (ECAC Hockey), Notre Dame (Big Ten) or Denver (NCHC) will capture their league’s playoff trophy. Obviously, if more than one does so, it could be doom and gloom for teams sitting precariously on the bubble.
On the bubble
If the conference tournaments go chalk, I would put Clarkson or Northeastern into this final spot. Both the Golden Knights and Huskies have teams that I believed would make the tournament prior to the season starting. Both teams are above .500 and could go on a run. It will be easier for Clarkson to earn an automatic bid, given that there will only be four teams in the ECAC Hockey tournament.
UConn, losers of three straight, was looking fairly strong, but the Huskies are now below .500, meaning they’d be ineligible for the tournament, barring a win in the Hockey East tournament. Notre Dame, out of the Big Ten, is another team currently below .500 that could make a run and gain some consideration for the tournament.
Thoughts on the committee
I have a sneaking suspicion that the committee could look a little more favorably on putting in a second WCHA, ECAC Hockey or Atlantic Hockey team than me. On paper and based on the eye test, those leagues don’t deserve an additional team this season, especially if it is at the expense of a team from Hockey East or NCHC. This isn’t meant to be a knock on ECAC Hockey, but there are only four teams this year, and Clarkson has largely underachieved.
I hope that the committee goes off of recent history when trying to compare conferences. Ever since realignment, the NCHC clearly has been the best conference in college hockey. While the league might be a little down this season, it deserves the benefit of the doubt. Hockey East and Big Ten are the unquestioned next best conferences. Those three leagues should occupy more than half of the NCAA tournament field.
