It’s not exactly a surprise that Boston College, UMass, Providence College and UMass Lowell will battle it out in the Hockey East semifinals on Wednesday.
If you are surprised, then maybe you paid no attention when the annual preseason coaches’ poll was released in November.
The top four in the poll were Boston College, UMass, PC and Lowell. Guess the coaches know what they’re talking about.
In Sunday’s quarterfinals, BC beat New Hampshire, UMass defeated Northeastern, PC got by UConn and Lowell edged Boston University. To some, Lowell’s win might have qualified as a minor upset, but with Norm Bazin behind the bench, it shouldn’t have.
In terms of the NCAA tournament, BC and UMass are locks. PC is very much on the bubble and would greatly help its chances with another win. Lowell must win the Hockey East championship to move on to the national tourney.
Here’s how I see the semis:
UMass Lowell at Boston College
If you compare the rosters, well, there really is no comparison.
Lowell has four NHL draft picks, including the third-string goalie, while BC has 13, with three first-rounders.
BC, led by five-time Hockey East Coach of the Year Jerry York, won both meetings between the teams, 7-1 and 4-3, in mid-February.
But you can count on Bazin’s River Hawks to have a good game plan to try to shut down the offensively prolific Eagles. If they execute it, as they did superbly against BU on Sunday, expect a close game.
The River Hawks are a strong puck possession team, much more so than BC.
Lowell’s top scorers, Reid Stefanson and Andre Lee, have 14 points. BC has seven players with 15 or more points, led by Minnesota first-rounder Matt Boldy with 10-16-26 in 20 games.
Surprisingly, given the skill in its lineup, BC is 41st in the country on the power play (15 percent). The penalty kill is seventh (86 percent).
Lowell’s power play is 30th (19.7 percent), while the PK is 16th (77.3 percent).
The biggest statistical difference is in goal, where the Eagles have the best goalie in the country in Spencer Knight, whose .937 save percentage is tied for third nationally. Knight was named Hockey East Player of the Year on Tuesday.
Lowell, which has turned out terrific netminders such as Connor Hellebuyck and Tyler Wall over the past decade, has a team save percentage of .872. That’s tied with Merrimack for third worst in the nation behind only New Hampshire (.868) and Ferris State (.858).
Lowell freshman Henry Welsch (.898) gave up one goal on 17 shots in the quarterfinal win at BU.
Prediction: The Eagles have Knight. The River Hawks don’t. BC, 3-1
Providence College at UMass
These two schools played a 0-0 tie and a 1-1 deadlock in a home-and-home in January. Then the Minutemen demolished the Friars, 8-1, at Schneider Arena on Feb. 23.
That blowout was an outlier. Wednesday’s game figures to be a one-goal contest, maybe in overtime.
Both teams, led by standout head coaches in PC’s Nate Leaman and Greg Carvel of UMass, are among the nation’s best in puck possession.
The Minutemen have the edge in special teams, with the 10th best power play (23.4 percent) and second-best penalty kill (91.2 percent).
PC’s PK is 12th (84.8 percent) and its power play is 30th (18.2 percent).
Staying out of the box will be key for the Friars, who have been crippled by bad penalties at times. In the past two UMass-PC games, the Minutemen went four for nine with the man advantage.
In goal, junior Filip Lindberg of the Minutemen has the second-best save percentage in the country at .939. PC freshman Jaxson Stauber comes in at .919.
UMass has good scoring balance up front with six players with 18 or more points. Bobby Trivigno drives the top line with Josh Lopina and Garrett Wait and UMass has a monster defense pairing in Zac Jones and Matthew Kessel.
Providence is not a prolific offensive team, scoring on only 8.3 percent of its shots, the lowest since 2011-12, Leaman’s first season.
Tyce Thompson, who put up an 11-13-24 line in 24 games, is PC’s best forward and is a top player in the league. The defense pair of Mike Callahan and Max Crozier is terrific at both ends.
Prediction: The Friars have played some of their best hockey on the road, but home ice gives the Minutemen a slight edge. UMass, 3-2.
