On Feb. 23, 2024, I published a story titled, "6 boys MIAA teams who could upset top seeds in D1 tournament."
The sixth team on that list was Winchester, which went all the way to TD Garden and was a goal shy of winning a state title. Crazily enough, the MIAA did not give me the postseason script.
I will likely come out with a similar story at the end of this season. But as we dive deeper into February, it's a good time to take stock of where things are for this season's MIAA Division 1 boys hockey tournament.
There is a lot of parity. But as I've mentioned in the last two rankings, the top 10 teams are defined (or as defined as they can be this time of year).
In this story, we'll look at the tournament favorites, the teams who will contend near the top and some sleeper teams who could make a whole bunch of noise further down the depth chart. The order in which the teams are listed is the order in which I think those teams have a shot at the title if the tournament began today.
Let's dive in.
Favorites
Pope Francis (14-2-0): Only one favorite might be bold, but Pope Francis is the clear No. 1 team in the MIAA — and that's been the case all season. The Cardinals have had no trouble beating the other best teams, which isn't a huge surprise. They're deep up front with a potent mix of grizzled veterans and up-and-coming top prospects. They're stout on defense and still have goalie Nick Ritchie, who led this team to a state title two years ago. And with this being head coach Brian Foley's first season back after suspension, it feels a bit like a redemption tour.
Contenders
St. John's Prep (11-4-0): While St. John's Prep stumbled out of the gate with losses to Hingham, Pope Francis and Reading, the Eagles have stabilized, going 9-1-0 since Jan. 2. Head coach Kristian Hanson's team lost a whole bunch of talent from last season's state title-winning squad. But senior goalie AJ Farese didn't leave and is the Eagles' best chance at repeating. The offense, led by senior Mason Luciano and junior Brandon Ward, isn't the same as last season, but it's still more than good enough to challenge other top teams.
Hingham (12-4-1): Sure, the Harbormen have fallen on hard times of late with losses to Belmont, Pope Francis and Catholic Memorial. But they still have five games to gear up for the tournament. Head coach Tony Messina's team has depth, but what's even more important is a dominant top line, which Hingham has in senior Colin Lasch and juniors Conal Mulkerrin and Cam McKenna. Lasch can drive and set up plays down the middle, Mulkerrin doesn't have a weakness and McKenna has a wicked shot. Slowing them down won't be easy. One team, however, recently did.
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Belmont (11-4-1): That would be the Marauders, who beat Hingham, 2-1, on Sunday. Their top line of senior Adam Bauer, junior Leo Packard and sophomore Liam Guilderson is the perfect blend of 200-foot play and high-end skill. Containing that trio is going to be a struggle for any team who gets them in the tournament. Add in goalie Ethan Bauer, who is big, athletic and tracks pucks well, and Belmont may have the perfect recipe to go deep in March.
Reading (10-2-4): Like Hingham, Reading has had a tough time of late, falling to Woburn, losing to Arlington in 2OT and tying Belmont. Head coach Mark Doherty's team has given top teams good games, such as when they beat St. John's Prep in overtime and played Pope Francis close despite losing in an MIAA endowment game. Reading plays a very structured game, boasts a stout defensive core and Owen Holland has been outstanding in net. Low-scoring games will be the Rockets' key to a deep run.
Arlington (11-4-2): The Spy Ponders have some of the most high-end talent in the MIAA with forwards JP Messuri, Nolan Russell, Cam Petrillo and Drew Beck, as well as defenseman Kurt Beck. That core can produce offense as well as anyone. But head coach John Messuri's team has also gotten strong goaltending from John Snyder and shutdown defense from Bobby Nigro. It's still a young team, but a deep run is possible.
St. Mary's Lynn (12-4-1):Â On paper, the Spartans have two big advantages. The first is Matthew Smith Jr., in net, who has been a stalwart all season with a 1.24 goals-against average and a .950 save percentage. The second is offensive depth. While St. Mary's doesn't have one, go-to guy up front, it has a number of players who can contribute. The Spartans also have been good against other high-end teams this season, taking Pope Francis to overtime and tying Hingham. We'll get an even better read on St. Mary's with its next two games against BC High and St. John's Prep.
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Catholic Memorial (11-5-1): CM is fresh off a 5-4 win at Hingham on Friday night, so head coach Larry Rooney's team is riding high. The Knights are relatively young, especially in net. But that doesn't mean they don't have the ability to go deep in the tournament — quite the opposite. Eighth-grader Jaxson Fleming (Waltham, Mass.) has been a revelation in CM's net this season. Sophomore Christian Hinckle (Milton, Mass.) has been an offensive leader. Junior James Baker (Dorchester, Mass.) and freshman Colin Yandle (Dorchester, Mass.) have been the big dogs on defense. It's likely that this tournament will serve as a learning experience for future deeper runs, but the pieces are in place.
BC High (7-5-3):Â Scoring has been an issue for BC High all season, as it has scored more than three goals in only three games. But MIAA tournament games are often low-scoring and BC High has typically won those games this season. Head coach John Flaherty's team also boasts one of the best young goalies in the MIAA with sophomore Drew Karlovits. Playing in the Catholic Conference also has BC High battle-tested.
Xaverian (9-6-1): Xaverian has had a weird season. Some weeks, the Hawks were left on the outside of my top 10. Yet on Jan. 23, after beating St. John's Prep, Central Catholic and Catholic Memorial in a seven-day stretch, they moved to No. 3. In my latest ranking, they were at No. 10. Clearly, they're a hard team to pin down. Hence why they could be dangerous.
Most of the offense has come from seniors Devin Gosciak (Easton, Mass.) and Jackson Morse (Raynham, Mass.), as well as junior Joe Von Handorf (Norwood, Mass.). Senior Michael Bulkin (Sherborn, Mass.) has stepped up and been terrific in net. It's a similar story to Belmont: If the Hawks gets high-end goaltending and their top guys play like top guys, they will be a pain to play against.
SleepersÂ
Archbishop Williams (9-7-0):Â What makes Archies so dangerous is its high-end offense weapons. Senior Finn Kelly (Dorchester, Mass.) entered the season with big expectations and has met them so far with 16 goals and 29 points in 16 games. Junior Stephen O'Malley (Dorchester, Mass.) and sophomore Quinn Taylor (Dorchester, Mass.) also have more than 20 points apiece. Archbishop Williams may not have a great record against top-10 teams this season, but it beat Xaverian, split with St. Mary's Lynn and lost to Pope Francis and Hingham by one.
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St. John's Shrewsbury (8-8-0):Â The Pioneers have been without Daniel Menyalkin, arguably the best player in the MIAA, due to injury and are hoping to get him back for the postseason. If the Shrewsbury, Mass., native is back, the dynamic of that whole team changes and I'd probably move them into the upper echelon of 'Contenders'. Junior forward Brady Chenevert (Shrewsbury, Mass.) has also shown a knack for scoring this season with 14 goals. SJS did have some early-season wins over BC High and Xaverian.
Marshfield (12-4-1): Marshfield is used to being deep in the 'Contenders' category, but has had some hiccups. In the latest MIAA Division 1 power rankings, Marshfield has the second-lowest opponent rating (0.8938) and has losses to Framingham, Hingham, Duxbury, Scituate and Canton. Still, head coach Dan Connolly's team is always a threat with seniors Jack Doherty and Sammy Holte, as well as freshman Caden Altobello.
Weymouth (11-4-2):Â The Wildcats have been the breakout team in the Bay State Herget division. On Sunday, they will play for the Ed Burns Coffee Pot Tournament Brinn Division title. While their opponent rating (1.6370) isn't as high as the teams at the top, never discount what winning a lot of games can do to a team's confidence come the state tournament. Junior forward Whalen Chin has been a standout, while senior Alex Stockton, juniors Ryan Ferguson and Michael Curry, and freshman Ryan MacDonald have provided a lot of the scoring.
Winchester (9-9-0):Â Winchester has been up and down of late, getting wins over Burlington, Concord-Carlisle and Woburn, while losing to Hingham, Belmont and Arlington. It's hard to get back to TD Garden in two straight seasons, but it's not out of the question given the caliber of teams the Red and Black have faced.
Natick (9-3-4):Â Natick has had a terrific season so far, tying BC High and Arlington Catholic, as well as taking care of business in the Bay State Carey division. The big thing I'm watching with Natick is senior forward Sam Hubbard. He is one of the best players in the MIAA. So far, he has 22 goals and 32 points on the season. One last hurrah for Hubbard would be to push Natick deep into the tournament and he has all the tools to do it.
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Braintree (7-7-2):Â Despite being .500 and ranked No. 18 in the latest MIAA power rankings, the Wamps have two things that raise my eyebrows. The first is that they beat Pope Francis on Jan. 18. The second is that senior goalie Amir Cullinane has been terrific. Every postseason there's a new goalie who emerges to carry their team. While the Wamps rank fairly low, it wouldn't be shocking for the senior netminder to guide his team past some higher-seeded teams.
