This can be a bit of a dangerous exercise given how fast things change, but we're in the final month of the New England boys prep hockey season, so we must do it.
It's time to look at the Elite 8 race.
When I did this at this time last year, Kimball Union was projected as an Elite 8 team, while Rivers was far out. Those two teams swapped over the next few weeks, with KUA eventually winning the Small School tournament and Rivers reaching the Elite 8 semifinal game.
All of these teams were selected based on the projected final JSPR as of Thursday morning. The records listed are NEPSIHA, which counts towards JSPR and seeding the Elite 8.
Let's dive in.
Dexter Southfield (15-1-2)
Why they'd be in:Â The Shields only have one NEPSAC loss, and it came to Kent on Dec. 6. So far, they've lived up to being my preseason No. 1 team. The big wins have come against Phillips Andover, Cushing, St. George's (twice), Winchendon, New Hampton, St. Mark's and Pomfret. February will present some challenges with Andover, St. Paul's, Winchendon, Holderness and Brunswick.
Why they can make a run:Â Offensively, they're the deepest and most talented team in the region, but you know that. What should set Dexter apart is motivation. Most of this roster skated off the ice last March after losing the Elite 8 title by a goal. The 13 seniors want another shot at the final.
Salisbury (14-3-2)
Why they'd be in:Â Salisbury is an Elite 8 favorite through and through. Unlike past Crimson Knight seasons, there wasn't any slow start. The big wins have come over Kent, Canterbury, Frederick Gunn (twice), Cushing, Westminster, Choate and Kent. The losses came against Phillips Andover at the Flood-Marr tournament, Culver and Berkshire. The rest of the schedule is tough with Winchendon, Taft, Brunswick, Avon Old Farms, Hotchkiss (twice) and Deerfield, but the algorithm projects head coach Andrew Will's team will do just fine.
Why they can make a run:Â Depth and physicality. The Crimson Knights have a more well-rounded scoring attack than they did a year ago. Their forwards are physical and difficult on the forecheck. But on defense, that core is reliable and makes life difficut on opposing players. Come the Elite 8, Salisbury will look to keep games low-scoring.
READ MORE: Our girls Elite 8 forecastÂ
Belmont Hill (14-4-2)
Why they'd be in:Â Belmont Hill only has four NEPSAC losses: Governor's Academy, St. Sebastian's, Thayer and St. Paul's. The big wins include Lawrence Academy (twice), Millbrook (twice), Brunswick, Governor's Academy, St. Mark's and Tabor. Big matchups coming up will be against Phillips Andover, Rivers, St. Sebastian's, Thayer, Tabor and Westminster. Similar to the other ISL Keller teams in this story, Belmont Hill's fate will likely be decided in how they do in those matchups.
Why they can make a run: Their high-end offensive upside. Seniors Patrick Woods (Charlestown, Mass.), Matthew Carolan (Stow, Mass.) and Evan Jones (Arlington, Mass.), along with freshman Sam Lee (Woburn, Mass.), will be massive in determining where this team slots in March. They all can produce quite a bit. They will be X-factors against those ISL Keller opponents.
Avon Old Farms (14-3-1)
Why they'd be in:Â Avon Old Farms is the current leader in the JSPR, but the algorithm predicts the Winged Beavers falling to No. 5 by season's end`. The big wins have come against Williston Northampton, St. George's, Deerfield, Tabor, St. Paul's, Frederick Gunn, Hotchkiss, Kent (twice), Loomis Chaffee and Westminster. Avon doesn't play a ton of games, but it maximizes its schedule by playing good teams, and that's the case down the stretch: Frederick Gunn, Deerfield, Choate, Salisbury, Pomfret, Canterbury and Loomis Chaffee. The Winged Beavers have lost two in a row, falling to Choate and Westminster in the last six days.
Why they can make a run:Â The Winged Beavers have the horses up front in players like Liam Donnelly, Nico Ciardiello and Ethan Gingeleskie, but senior goalie Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.) will be the reason Avon goes deep (and potentially wins). The uncommitted netminder has so much experience in prep and has a 1.63 goals-against average and a .942 save percentage this season.
St. Mark's (16-3-0)
Why they'd be in: St. Mark's wins have aged really well, like early takedowns of Winchendon, Canterbury and Middlesex. Other big wins have come against Rivers, St. George's, Middlesex (again) and Governor's Academy. The three losses have come against Tabor, Belmont Hill and Dexter — all teams in the Elite 8 field. The remaining big games are Groton (twice), Cushing, Middlesex, Rivers, Lawrence Academy and St. George's.
Why they can make a run:Â They lead the region in goals with 140 (Winchendon is the next closest at 111). If the Lions are going to make a run in the Elite 8, they will undoubtedly need senior Evan Nee (Arlington, Mass.) and juniors Caiden Pellegrino (Uxbridge, Mass.) and Will Manchuso (Concord, Mass.) driving the offense. It's imperative. If those three (along with the rest of the forwards) can pot goals and the defense and goaltending can be respectable, St. Mark's has a chance at a title.
READ MORE: 13 standouts, takeaways from Dexter’s win over St. Mark’s
Kimball Union (19-4-1)
Why they'd be in:Â This time last year, Kimball Union looked like an Elite 8 guarantee. But losses in mid-February dropped KUA into the Small School bracket. Can the Wildcats avoid that this season? The big wins have come against Brunswick, Rivers, St. Paul's (twice), Westminster, New Hampton, Cushing and Tilton. Head coach Tim Whitehead's team's Elite 8 case will be made with how it does against Holderness (twice), New Hampton, Phillips Andover, Cushing and in the Lakes Region tournament.
Why they can make a run:Â Senior forward Josh Phillips has been as dominant as he looked in the fall with 49 points in his first 26 games. But the secret advantage KUA has is a two-way defensive core. Seniors Lucas Hannay and Anthony Leech, along with juniors Nasean Faria and Thomas Ojard, have been as productive in the offensive zone as in their own end.
Tabor (13-5-0)
Why they'd be in:Â The Seawolves have some big wins over Lawrence Academy, St. Paul's, Kent, Berkshire, Winchendon, St. Mark's, Thayer and Governor's Academy. They've also been helped by how good the ISL Keller has been this season, and the success they've had against many of their rivals. Even with the success, four of their five losses have come against ISL Keller teams: Nobles, Milton, Belmont Hill and St. Sebastian's (the fifth came against Avon Old Farms). February features a gauntlet of ISL Keller teams in Nobles, Milton, Governor's Academy, St. Sebastian's, Thayer, Belmont Hill and Lawrence Academy. That will decide whether or not Tabor makes the big dance.
Why they can make a run:Â The Seawolves are old and experienced, with only four sophomores and no freshmen on the roster. Head coach Gerry Dineen's team is balanced from top to bottom and gets contributions from everywhere. But if Tabor is to go deep, it will be because of junior goalie Vinnie D'Urso (Andover, Mass.), who sports a 1.81 GAA and a .941 save percentage.
Hotchkiss (10-3-3)
Why they'd be in:Â Hotchkiss stunned the prep hockey universe by winning the Flood-Marr tournament with wins over Kimball Union, Westminster and Deerfield. The best part, however, was continuing that play with victories over St. Paul's, Kent, Deerfield and Choate. They also tied Loomis Chaffee and Berkshire, and only lost to Avon Old Farms by two goals. The next month will be tough, especially a home-and-home with Salisbury on Feb. 23 and 25.
Why they can make a run:Â Head coach Mike Doyle's team has depth up front with senior forwards Aidan Patton (Wallingford, Conn.) and Matthew Wallace, as well as juniors Jake Harrison, Austin Groves and Ryan Murray. But the X-factor will be junior goalie Neilan Johnson. The NHL Draft prospect carries a 1.56 GAA and a .947 save percentage.
READ MORE:Â The most fascinating story in hockey
St. Sebastian's (13-6-0)
Why they'd be in:Â After a 1-3-0 start, the Arrows are 12-3-0 with big wins over Winchendon, Rivers, Williston Northampton, Berkshire, Belmont Hill, Phillips Andover, Governor's Academy, Thayer and Tabor. Things, however, don't get any easier coming up with Cushing, Belmont Hill, Lawrence Academy (twice), Tabor, Governor's Academy and Thayer. Another trip through playing the ISL Keller will determine which bracket St. Sebastian's plays its games in come March. Falling to Milton on Wednesday night didn't help its case.
Why they can make a run:Â Tommy Saulnier (Medfield, Mass.), Tommy Saulnier and Tommy Saulnier. The junior goalie has been everything for the Arrows this season with a 1.69 GAA and a .946 save percentage. He absolutely has the qualities to carry St. Sebastian's through a week in the Elite 8. Also, don't sleep on the top line of senior Brendan Matthews (Westwood, Mass.) and sophomores Jack Queally (Milton, Mass.) and Cade Noonan (Needham, Mass.).
Holderness (14-4-0)
Why they'd be in:Â Losing two straight to New Hampton and falling to Pingree in January hurt Holderness' Elite 8 hopes quite a bit. But the Bulls do have some big wins over Tilton, Pomfret, Cushing, Rivers, St. Paul's and Governor's Academy, which could help. If Holderness wants to get into the big dance, it will have to perform well against Kimball Union (twice), Winchendon, St. Paul's and Dexter.
Why they can make a run:Â The Bulls have a deep group of forwards with postgrad Sawyer Graubins, seniors Viktor Samal and Jack Welby (Windham, N.H.), and juniors Michael Delaney, AJ Jones and Henry Colbert. Those six players have been a big reason why Holderness has been a top 10 offense this season.
Canterbury (15-5-2)
Why they'd be in:Â Canterbury has been one of the stunning breakout teams. The big wins have come against Millbrook (twice), Hotchkiss, Berkshire, Loomis Chaffee, Cushing, Williston Northampton, Choate, Frederick Gunn, Pomfret and Berkshire. The algorithm likely has the Saints on the outside looking in for the Elite 8 because of its schedule: Cushing, Frederick Gunn, Williston Northampton, Kent and Avon Old Farms are the hard matchups coming up.
Why they can make a run:Â Age. I've said it all year, but this team is old. The top of the lineup is littered with '07s. Seamus McMakin (Burlington, Mass.) leads the way with 35 points, while Jack Mceleney (Woburn, Mass.) and Jack Lee (Woburn, Mass.) have been huge producers up front, too. In back, Tommy Browne has been a revelation with 34 points in 22 games. Cody Hew, an '08, has been stellar in net with a 2.49 GAA and a .931 save percentage.
Rivers (11-5-1)
Why they'd be in: This time last year, Rivers was 13-5-1 and made it all the way to the Elite 8 semifinals. This year's team is also on the outside looking in — for now. The Red Wings have big wins over St. Sebastian's, Groton (twice), Brunswick and Middlesex. Taking down teams like Belmont Hill, St. Mark's and Thayer down the stretch would help its case for the Elite 8.
Why they can make a run: Experience. What gets talked about a lot is what Rivers lost from last year's team, and it was quite a bit. But the leaders of this year's group — Jonathan Rivard (Newton, Mass.), Stephen Rousell (Roslindale, Mass.), Evan Handler (Walpole, Mass.), Luke Morin (Weston, Mass.), Derrick Huang (Carlisle, Mass.) — know what it takes to get into and win in the Elite 8.
READ MORE:Â Boys prep rankings entering the final month
St. Paul's (14-8-0)
Why they'd be in:Â St. Paul's stumbled at the Avon Old Farms Christmas Classic and again in mid-January, but has had good winning streaks. The big wins have come over Kent, Groton, Phillips Andover and Belmont Hill. Notching wins in upcoming games against New Hampton, Lawrence Academy, Dexter, Tilton and Holderness would go a long way to boosting them into the Elite 8 come the end.
Why they can make a run:Â St. Paul's has gotten good production from senior forwards Andersen Kilbourne (Duxbury, Mass.) and Harry Dermody (Bedford, N.H.), as well as junior forwards Mitchell Smith, Finian Kilbourne (Duxbury, Mass.) and Callum Green. On defense, senior Quinn Brandell and junior James Buchan have led the way, while head coach Scott Harff's team has gotten strong play in net from senior Blake Truchon (South Burlington, Vt.) and junior Matteo Vessella. They're deep and dangerous.
Winchendon (12-6-4)
Why they'd be in:Â Winchendon looked cooked for even making the playoffs a few weeks ago, but is on a seven-game winning streak with wins over Cushing, Phillips Andover, Pomfret, Canterbury and Austin Prep. It's probably a bit too late for the Elite 8, but doing well against Lawrence Academy, Salisbury, Holderness and Dexter down the stretch would help.
Why they can make a run: Head coach Mike Busconi's team is old up front, and that's been led by Cornell commit Charlie Puglisi, who has 42 points in 23 games. Other big names up front are Cooper Ludwar (Chelmsford, Mass.), Kaidan Sahajpal, Laz Giardina (Reading, Mass.), Jackson Smail (Milton, Vt.), Jake West (Billerica, Mass.) and Kaden Kern (Lincoln, R.I.). Â
Phillips Andover (11-8-1)
Why they'd be in: Andover has likely been too inconsistent to make the Elite 8, going 1-4-1 from Jan. 16 to Jan. 31. But the Big Blue have big wins over New Hampton, Groton, Salisbury, Kimball Union, St. George's, Choate and Deerfield.
Why they can make a run:Â Andover has the talent. The Big Blue actually have an intriguing mix of older players (Alex Small, Nate Kreppner, David O'Neill, Jason Faith, Kieran McIntosh, Alex Theodore) and younger talent (Michael Barrett, Jack O'Dell, Nolan Roberts) to give any team a fight. Senior Edouard Lord has had a strong season in net with a 2.73 GAA and a .925 save percentage.
READ MORE: Top boys prep performers from Jan. 28 to Feb. 3
Brunswick (13-5-0)
Why they'd be in:Â While Brunswick lost all four of its games at the St. Andrew's College MacPherson tournament last weekend, only the loss to Culver counts against its record. Other losses this season came to Loomis Chaffee, Kimball Union, Rivers and Belmont Hill. The important wins came against St. George's, Kent, Westminster, Williston Northampton and Millbrook. The Bruins' schedule is hard down the stretch with Cushing, Frederick Gunn (twice), Berkshire, Salisbury, Taft and Dexter on the docket.
Why they can make a run:Â The forwards. Scoring from seniors Mason St. Louis (Old Greenwich, Conn.), Ben Lombardi (Cos Cob, Conn.) and Owen Gibbons (Southport, Conn.), juniors Keegan Kazan (Wilton, Conn.) and James Jackson (Darien, Conn.), and sophomore Colton Cleaves (Riverside, Conn.) would be Brunswick's meal ticket to an Elite 8 run.
