The finish line is in sight.
Just two days remain in the girls prep hockey regular season. On Sunday, the brackets will be out. The quarterfinals will begin on Wednesday across all three tournaments, with the semifinals next Saturday and finals next Sunday.
So, what's at stake in the final weekend of the regular season?
Plenty of teams are still jockeying for playoff seeding. Whether it's in the Elite 8 or the Large and Small School tournaments, plenty could still change. You've also got the Lakes Region playoffs. Those games will be important for St. Paul's in the Elite 8 race and New Hampton in the Small School hunt.
As of Thursday night, here are the current and projected playoff seedings, according to USHR.
Chuck Vernon Elite 8 Tournament
- Current: Nobles | Projected: Nobles
- Current: Phillips Andover | Projected: Phillips Andover
- Current: Williston Northampton | Projected: Williston Northampton
- Current: Dexter Southfield | Projected: Dexter Southfield
- Current: Loomis Chaffee | Projected: Loomis Chaffee
- Current: Deerfield | Projected: Tabor
- Current: Tabor | Projected: Deerfield
- Current: St. Paul's | Projected: St. Paul's
Patsy Odden Large School Tournament
- Current: Phillips Exeter | Projected: Phillips Exeter
- Current: Choate | Projected: Choate
- Current: BB&N | Projected: BB&N
- Current: Taft |Projected: Taft
- Current: Thayer | Projected: Thayer
- Current: Berkshire | Projected: Berkshire
- Current: Middlesex | Projected: Kent
- Current: St. George's | Projected: Middlesex
Dorothy Howard Small School Tournament
- Current: Groton | Projected: Groton
- Current: Rivers | Projected: Rivers
- Current: Cushing | Projected: Cushing
- Current: Governor's | Projected: Governor's
- Current: St. Mark's | Projected: St. Mark's
- Current: Portsmouth Abbey | Projected: Portsmouth Abbey
- Current: New Hampton | Projected: New Hampton
- Current: Hoosac | Projected: Hoosac
Here are seven storylines to keep an eye on in the final two days of the girls prep regular season.
Let's dive in.
How will the top five in the Elite 8 shakeout?
The current top five seeds in the Elite 8 — Nobles, Phillips Andover, Williston Northampton, Dexter Southfield and Loomis Chaffee — are projected to remain the same.
Is there any way it could change?
Nobles will close the regular season at Milton Academy, which they're projected to beat. The same goes for Andover in its finale against Phillips Exeter, but the Big Blue will be facing a Big Red team on the Elite 8 bubble with something to prove.
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Williston, meanwhile, is projected to win its finale against BB&N. The same goes for Dexter against both Rivers and Lawrence Academy. Loomis is also projected to beat Deerfield in the finale.
But what if any of those results flip? Say Exeter beats Andover, or BB&N, which has been a tough out for most of the season, upends Williston? Could Dexter and Loomis sneak into the top three?
Dexter, meanwhile, had its hands full with Rivers in a 2-2 tie (and triple-overtime win) earlier this season. If the Shields slip up, perhaps Loomis can get back into the top four. Or, could Deerfield crack the top five with a win over Loomis? That seems unlikely, as the Pelicans have just three losses to Deerfield's five at the time of writing.
Can St. Paul's hang on?
The Big Red are the current and projected No. 8 seed in the Elite 8.
St. Paul's took control of its Elite 8 hopes after beating Tabor and sweeping Phillips Exeter over the past few weeks. Other results over the last several weeks, like tying Deerfield and Groton, went a long way, too. Taking care of business against Tilton and Proctor after the Exeter sweep only bolstered SPS' standing.
Entering the final weekend, the Big Red are still in control of their own destiny.
The Lakes Region regular-season champions, St. Paul's will face Kimball Union in the Lakes Region playoffs on Friday. The winner will have a date with the winner of New Hampton and Vermont Academy. SPS is projected to beat KUA, but the potential championship bout is not factored into the projections.
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If St. Paul's takes care of business, they should be on their way to the top tournament. A loss, especially in the semifinals, could be a big blow, leaving them scoreboard watching for help around the NEPSAC.
As far as others toward the back end of the projected Elite 8, Deerfield and Tabor look to be in good shape.
Deerfield has just Loomis Chaffee left on the docket, a game in which the algorithm projects it to lose, but the Big Green are only slated to slip one spot to seventh. Tabor, meanwhile, has potentially-playoff-bound St. George's and Berkshire remaining. The Seawolves are projected to win both games and move up to sixth.
Who could make one final Elite 8 push?
Several teams are jockeying for position just outside of the Elite 8. The next four are Groton, Phillips Exeter, Choate and Rivers.
One stands out in particular: Groton.
The Zebras are currently ninth in the JSPR, where they're projected to stay. They have one game remaining against St. Mark's, which is bound for the Small School tournament.
The odds are against Groton's Elite 8 hopes, but never say never. If the Zebras take care of St. Mark's and get some help from Kimball Union and possibly New Hampton or Vermont Academy in the Lakes Region tournament, maybe there could be a path to leap-frogging St. Paul's. Never say never.
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As unlikely as it seems, you might be able to say the same for Exeter and Rivers, which will wrap up against Elite 8-bound teams.
Exeter is the current and projected No. 10. Rivers is currently No. 11 and projected No. 12. If Exeter can upset Andover and get some help elsewhere, maybe there's a path. The same could go for Rivers when it faces Dexter. Nevertheless, a lot would need to happen, and even then, it might not be enough.
How will the Large School bracket shake out?
The top six in the Large School field appear to be in good shape between Exeter, Choate, BB&N, Taft, Thayer and Berkshire. Where things get interesting is the final two spots.
Middlesex is currently No. 7 but projected to finish No. 8. St. George's, meanwhile, is currently eighth but projected to fall outside of the picture. Kent and Austin Prep are right behind in the race.
Middlesex and St. George's have a massive head-to-head in the regular-season finale on Saturday. The algorithm projects it to go down as a tie, but it's fair to expect it won't. Perhaps it's a win-and-get-in scenario for both teams.
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Kent, meanwhile, has Westminster in the regular-season finale. The Martlets are behind Kent and AP in the RPI right now, likely putting them out of the race. Kent is projected to win that matchup, which would vault the Lions into the Large School bracket, pending the results of Middlesex-St. George's.
What about Austin Prep? The Cougars have the Vaillancourt Conference playoffs this weekend, in which they'll face Pomfret on Friday before potentially moving on to face the winner of North Yarmouth Academy and Worcester Academy on Saturday. AP, which fell to Pomfret in overtime last weekend, is projected to beat Pomfret on Friday, although the Cougars would remain behind Middlesex and STG. Saturday's potential matchup is not factored into the projections. Perhaps they could leapfrog into the final spot with a pair of wins and some help elsewhere.
What about the Small School field?
No changes are projected in the final eight teams to make the Small School tournament.
So, what about teams on the outside looking in? The one to watch is Frederick Gunn, which is right behind New Hampton and Hoosac in the current and projected RPI.
Hoosac will visit Millbrook in the finale, which USHR projects as a win. New Hampton will face Vermont Academy in the Lakes Region semis. The Huskies, who are looking to defend three-straight Small School titles, could move on to face either St. Paul's or Kimball Union in the Lakes Region final. New Hampton is projected to beat Vermont, but the potential championship matchup is not factored into the projections.
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Gunn has Greenwich Country Day in the regular-season finale, which Gunn is projected to win. If Gunn can get help from either Millbrook or New Hampton's Lakes Region foes, they could sneak into the postseason.
Can Francie Ames reach 60 points?
Ames (Brookline, Mass.) is producing at a potentially historic rate this season as far as recent girls prep seasons go.
The sophomore forward is sitting at 58 points in 27 games. She has the prep scoring race locked up, sitting 11 points ahead of Phillips Exeter's Maria Gray and Phillips Andover's Sarah Powers (Lynnfield, Mass.) and Caroline Averill (Wayland, Mass.) Those three are tied for second with 47 points apiece.
With one game to go in the regular season, Ames has a shot to become the first skater to reach the 60-point mark since Princeton forward Emmy O'Leary (Southboro, Mass.) put up 64 for Nobles in 2021-22. Ames' NEPSAC-leading 35 assists are also the most by any skater since at least the 2019-20 season.
Ames has put up at least a point in every game this season, and she has eight consecutive multi-point games, putting up 21 points in that span. On the season, she has 18 multi-point outings.
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It has been a massive step up for Ames, who put up seven goals and 14 points in each of her freshman and eighth-grade seasons. After playing defense last season, Ames has been a major play-driver back at her natural forward position, primarily centering a line with Lily Bromley (Carlisle, Mass.) and Rachel Zhao (Westwood, Mass.).
Who will lead prep in goals?
Ames may be leading the scoring race, but there's plenty that can change in the goals race.
Her 23 goals are currently in a four-way tie atop the NEPSAC with Gray, Exeter's Paisley Meyer (Greenland, N.H.) and Thayer's Maddy Call (Dedham, Mass.).
Zhao, Governor's Brooke Carlson (North Andover, Mass.), Loomis' Annie Schwarz (Fairfield, Conn.) and Cushing's Bella Freitas (Everett, Mass.) are within striking distance with 21 goals apiece. Caroline Averill, Austin Prep's Sarah Sampson (Wilmington, Mass.) and St. Paul's Erin Flaherty (Boston, Mass.) are close by with 20 goals each, too.
