Come Sunday, the New England boys prep hockey playoff brackets will be released. We will finally have seeds for the Elite 8, Large School and Small School tournaments.
But we're not there yet. There are still two days left for things to change.
The Lakes Region playoffs are Friday and Saturday. Because they're not factored into USHR's initial projected seeds, they were already important. But because Holderness beat No. 2 Dexter Southfield on Wednesday, the games are even more important. More on that in a bit.
There are also teams on the verge of the Large and Small School tournaments. We can't forget about them.
As of Thursday night, here are the current and projected playoff seedings, according to USHR.
Stuart/Corkery Elite 8 Tournament
- Current: Deerfield | Projected: Deerfield
- Current: Dexter Southfield | Projected: Dexter Southfield
- Current: Cushing | Projected: Cushing
- Current: Belmont Hill | Projected: St. Mark's
- Current: St. Mark's | Projected: Belmont Hill
- Current: Salisbury | Projected: Brunswick
- Current: Holderness | Projected: Salisbury
- Current: Brunswick | Projected: Holderness
Martin/Early Large School Tournament
- Current: Nobles | Projected: Nobles
- Current: Avon Old Farms | Projected: Avon Old Farms
- Current: Phillips Andover | Projected: Phillips Andover
- Current: Governor's Academy |Projected: Governor's Academy
- Current: Thayer | Projected: Thayer
- Current: Westminster | Projected: Taft
- Current: Trinity-Pawling | Projected: Westminster
- Current: Taft | Projected: Trinity-Pawling
Piatelli/Simmons Small School Tournament
- Current: Rivers | Projected: Rivers
- Current: Berkshire | Projected: Berkshire
- Current: Kimball Union | Projected: Kimball Union
- Current: Tilton | Projected: Tilton
- Current: St. George's | Projected: St. George's
- Current: Groton | Projected: Pomfret
- Current: Pomfret| Projected: Groton
- Current: Winchendon | Projected: Winchendon
Here are five storylines to keep an eye on in the final two days of the regular season.
1. What kind of impact will the Lakes Region playoffs have on Elite 8?
Holderness catapulted itself from the No. 3 seed in the Small School Tournament to No. 7 in the Elite 8 with its upset win over Dexter Southfield on Wednesday night. The road, however, is far from a sure thing for the Bulls.
They face Tilton, who they're 1-1 against this season, at home on Friday. Head coach Alan Thompson's team will play the winner of Kimball Union and New Hampton on Saturday if they beat Tilton. If they lose to Tilton, they'll play the loser of the KUA-New Hampton game.
I'm not the one in charge of the algorithm for the playoffs, but I'd imagine even with a win against Tilton and loss to Kimball Union, the Bulls would still be in the Elite 8. Kimball Union beat Holderness, 5-2, at home on Feb. 7. Holderness returned the favor with a 7-2 victory on Feb. 15. If there was a rematch, it would be at Kimball Union since the Wildcats are the No. 1 seed in the Lakes Region.
Even if KUA beat New Hampton and Holderness, the Wildcats would need teams above them to lose for them to sniff the Elite 8, according to USHR.
2. What about the other teams in the Elite 8?
If the tournament began today, Belmont Hill would host St. Mark's in the quarterfinals. But because St. Mark's beat St. George's on Wednesday and have BB&N and Groton this weekend, the Lions are projected to jump the Sextants into the No. 4 spot. Belmont Hill only has Westminster left. That game is at Westminster and the Martlets aren't to be taken lightly.
Brunswick's loss to Taft on Saturday didn't help its case. But the Bruins have done more than enough this season to stay in the Elite 8. According to USHR, they should (key word: should) stay in the Elite 8 even with a loss to Trinity-Pawling on Friday night. But Trinity-Pawling is battling for the final seed in the Large School Tournament and Brunswick head coach Mike Kennedy would like the Bruins to go into next week with some momentum. I'd be shocked if any of Belmont Hill, St. Mark's or Brunswick fell out of the Elite 8.
Salisbury is near the edge. Beating Winchendon on Saturday will be paramount.
And then there's Rivers, who entered Wednesday in the No. 8 seed for the Elite 8. The Red Wings beat Brooks, 8-1, but got knocked into being the No. 1 seed in the Small School Tournament due to Holderness. They have no more games left.
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3. How's the Large School field looking?
As of Thursday night, Taft's RPI is 0.5320, while Kent is 0.5296. Taft is currently the No. 8 seed in the Large School Tournament (projected No. 6), while Kent is out both now and in the projected tournament. Tabor isn't much further behind with an RPI of 0.5224.
Taft faces Hotchkiss on Saturday, while Kent visits Choate. Tabor will be at Lawrence Academy. If Taft takes care of business, the Rhinos are in. But if they don't, I'd imagine Kent would be in with a win. Tabor should still be motivated to come away with a win against Lawrence Academy in case something crazy happens. Tabor was hot in January, but went 5-8-0 in its final 13 games.
4. What about the Small School field?
Last season, Proctor upset Kimball Union in the Lakes Region playoffs and earned the No. 8 spot in the Small School Tournament. I don't see that happening with New Hampton being fairly far behind the Small School field in RPI and Tilton should already be in.
Winchendon's RPI is at 0.5123. It's the current (and projected) No. 8 seed in the Small School Tournament. Right behind it are Frederick Gunn (0.5068) and Canterbury (0.5024). Normally we'd say that Winchendon has to win to stay in...but that doesn't seem to be the case.
Head coach Mike Busconi's team finishes the season against Salisbury. USHR projects them to lose and stay at No. 8 in the Small School Tournament. Wins over Dexter Southfield and Holderness in the last couple of weeks definitely helped them.
5. Can Joe Salandra pull away for the region-lead in points?
Salandra and Rivers forward Carter Meyer (Winchester, Mass.) are tied with 68 points. Since Rivers has no more games to play in the regular season and Brunswick has one (and it's important), Salandra has a chance to pull ahead entering the postseason.
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The Harvard commit has points in his last five games, so it would be more surprising if he didn't find the scoresheet on Friday night.
Meyer and Salandra will still have at least one game each once the playoffs start to continue battling for the most points. The only caveat is Salandra has played eight more games, so Meyer leads him 2.62 to 2.00 in points per game.
Barring someone going off in the playoffs, it's Salandra versus Meyer for Player of the Year.
