A year from now, it's safe to presume the USA Hockey Development League will be up and running.
The 29 teams invited on Monday, if they accept, will have recruited rosters for a 17U team and a 15U team. They will have a full schedule. We will have answers on what this league looks like and the impact it may have.
But we're still a year away from that.
For now, it's a relatively blank canvas, and everyone is asking questions about the Development League and its impact.
Initial thoughts and opinions can typically be wrong or classified as overreactions. I, of course, have no personal experience with that.
Still, I have some initial thoughts on what I think this league will impact most.
1. The 17U impact on prep
For starters, Massachusetts only got one DL team (the Boston Junior Eagles) in large part due to the concentration of prep schools here. The same is true for the rest of New England, as Rhode Island (Mount St. Charles), New Hampshire (Seacoast Performance Academy) and Connecticut (Mid Fairfield) all got one apiece. USA Hockey knows that the popular path for high-end players in Massachusetts and New England likely goes through a prep school or a full-season academy.
I can't imagine top 16- and 17-year-old players at metro Boston prep schools will be trading in their Milton Academy or Lawrence Academy or St. Sebastian's or St. Mark's sweaters for a Junior Eagles one. The same is true for Connecticut with Mid Fairfield — I don't see top players at Avon Old Farms, Kent, Salisbury, etc., leaving for the DL.
Will some? Of course. I'm assuming it's players looking for a bigger role or looking to leave their school in general. I look at someone like a Danny Patch (Melrose, Mass.) at Pingree or a Parker Murch (York, Maine) at Berwick. Both left after lighting it up at their schools for Cushing. Would they be candidates for the Junior Eagles or Mid Fairfield for their 17-year-old season? Potentially.
The MIAA and CIAC will be places to pick from for the Junior Eagles and Mid Fairfield. If there's a top 16- or 17-year-old prospect in Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine or Vermont high school hockey, I'd assume the DL could be an option.
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2. The 15U impact on prep
This is where the impact on prep could be felt most. If you're a high-end 14-year-old with U.S. National Team Development Program, first-round pick in the QMJHL or USHL tender aspirations, what's the better move: playing down the depth chart of a prep team or standing out as one of the four 14-year-olds on a 15U DL team?
Recently, NTDP-bound players have gotten good experience as 14-year-olds in prep. Carter Meyer (Winchester, Mass.), Finn Sears (Medford, Mass.) and Sam Pandolfo (Winchester, Mass.) all got considerable exposure as 14s starring at Rivers. Jack Queally (Milton, Mass.) was taking on top-line minutes for St. Sebastian's at 14. But those were also perfect situations on young teams.
If Sam Lee (Woburn, Mass.) were coming up now, would he have played full-season 15U hockey for the Junior Eagles as a 14-year-old and stayed for his age-15 season? Maybe, maybe not.
No doubt that prep puts NTDP and junior-bound 16-year-olds in a good position. But it's still something to keep an eye on.
3. Will players opt for 17U over juniors?
No. Plain and simple: If Rimouski (QMJHL) or Dubuque (USHL) comes calling offering a 17-year-old a spot, they're picking that over the DL — especially if they're already at a prep school.
Even if that player is at, say, Mount St. Charles or SPA, they're typically opting for juniors, which reinforces the biggest point: junior hockey is still the main threat to prep, high schools and academy hockey in New England.
This season, 24 players who could still be playing at a prep school or a full-season academy in New England left for the USHL (not including the NTDP). That number jumped to 26 for the QMJHL.
Juniors will always be the No. 1 draw.
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4. Will this prevent Americans from going to the CHL?
USA Hockey didn't make any comment insinuating this in their podcast announcing the invited teams. But they did put an interesting rule in the guidebook.
"Except for tryouts with the NTDP, USHL or NAHL, a player may not participate in any tryouts for any other team or program during the term of the Player Agreement."
Clearly, and understandably, USA Hockey wants to move DL players on to the USHL and NAHL.
Do USHL teams prioritize drafting players from the DL? Is there some sort of incentive instituted to get players from the DL to the USHL? Do they align training and workouts? I'm thinking out loud with this one.
So, will fewer Americans go to the CHL because of the DL? Probably not. Players are going to go to the best situation and the most opportunity. For some, that's the CHL. For others, that's the USHL.
5. The travel
At first glance, I thought every DL team had to play every other one, meaning the four local squads would have to make trips out to, say, Southern California to face the Anaheim Junior Ducks and Los Angeles Junior Kings. That would be considerable travel for New England teams used to staying close to home for big-time games.
That's not necessarily the case.
DL teams have to play a minimum of 60 percent of their games against other DL teams. DL teams will play a minimum of 40 games and a maximum of 55 during the regular season. They can't play more than one game in a season.
There's nothing about playing every team at least once. The four New England teams could play each other as much as they want to. They can also do regional showcases with teams like the Buffalo Junior Sabres, North Jersey Avalanche, Rockets Hockey Club and the Woodbridge Wolfpack. There are enough teams in the New England/mid-Atlantic area to limit travel.
6. Will players from around the United States want to play for New England teams?
This is an interesting one. DL teams can take players from anywhere in the United States. If you're from Framingham, Mass., and you want to play for Compuware in Michigan, knock yourself out.
Mount St. Charles and SPA have always recruited from around the United States. They have dorms. I'd anticipate that continuing, as they get interest from players outside of New England.
Mid Fairfield and the Junior Eagles, however, have always been different. Typically, only locals play for those teams. But with the DL, those two teams can take from anywhere around the country. Both programs would have to find billet homes in the area for those players.
It wouldn't shock me if non-New Englanders inquired with Mid Fairfield or the Junior Eagles.
Two hypotheticals:
- A 17-year-old player from, say, Arizona is sick of traveling every weekend. He could play for the Junior Coyotes, but he'd rather go to a part of the country where he doesn't have to go so far for games. Add in being close to so many high-end Division 1 college programs, and the Boston Junior Eagles are his target.
- A 16-year-old player from, say, Florida is looking at New England prep schools. Now the DL pops up and, while we don't know what the price to play will be, let's say it's cheaper than an average prep school. That player opts for Mid Fairfield and picks the closest Connecticut public high school.
I can't imagine most of those teams will be comprised of those players. But it wouldn't shock me if a few instances of that arose.
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7. How will Mount and SPA handle the import rule?
Both Mount St. Charles and SPA's 14U-18U rosters are full of non-U.S. citizens. Historically, both of those programs have been fantastic landing spots for Canadian and European players looking to play in the United States.
DL rules, however, will force them to change. DL teams can roster and play at most two non-U.S. citizens. Goalies have to be citizens. And those two non-U.S. citizens have to have been previously registered with USA Hockey and played on a USA Hockey team.
8. The NTDP will likely pull from the 15U DL level
The NTDP already closely tracks the 15O level in the United States. Walk into any big showcase with the best 15O teams, and you'll likely see some USA Hockey jackets.
I would guess that the Evaluation Camp roster in 2028, which is after the first season of the DL, will be littered with '12s who played in the DL. There will obviously be '12s who played prep or Minnesota high school hockey. But I'm betting there will be some sort of emphasis on players from the DL.
And if a spot came down to a DL player vs. a non-DL player, my guess (clearly labeled as such) would be that the DL player makes it.
9. How about the NTDP pulling from the 17U DL level?
This past summer, the NTDP brought in players to replace the '09s who defected for the CHL. They were mostly from the USHL, Minnesota high school hockey and the 16U level.
Players leaving after their U17 NTDP year could become the norm. Does the NTDP look to bring in two or three of the best 17U DL level players ahead of each U18 season? I wouldn't be shocked.
10. How does this impact non-DL club teams?
It definitely makes life harder on split-season club teams in New England, as they will battle with DL teams for players at the 15U and 17U levels. Like prep schools, they were already losing the top 17- and 18-year-olds to juniors. The DL will become another hurdle to jump. Scheduling teams could also be impacted for non-DL club teams.
On the USA Hockey podcast announcing the teams picked for the DL, they mentioned rising tides raising all ships — clubs not picked for the DL must continue improving to compete. Maybe that happens, maybe it doesn't. But at least in the short term, life likely got more difficult for non-DL club teams.
11. Will this ultimately be as big a deal as the NTDP and ADM?
On Monday, USA Hockey assistant executive director of hockey development Bob Mancini made an interesting comment about the DL's potential relevance.
“I expect the Development League to have the same impact on USA Hockey, youth hockey and junior hockey as the NTDP does and the [American Development Model] does,” he said. “I believe it will have that kind of impact.”
READ MORE: What is the USA Hockey Development League?
Will it?
My guess is no. But the NTDP was met with scoffs in the late '90s and those scoffs aged like milk. In the late 2000s, the ADM model was met with some eye rolls, yet it eventually revolutionized the American hockey player.
Those are high bars. Junior hockey may prevent the DL from clearing it.
