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Hockey East Journal: Numbers don't add up for UVM
Math probably isn’t something Vermont coach Kevin Sneddon wants his players doing too much of right now, outside the calculus and trigonometry from their classes.
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| Vermont senior Drew McKenzie (photo: Brian Jenkins) |
Otherwise, the arithmetic for the Catamounts isn’t too promising. With 11 games left to play, Vermont is dead last in Hockey East, five points behind ninth-place Northeastern and eight points out of a playoff spot. They’ve already clinched their second straight losing season, and the third under Sneddon’s nine-year tenure.
So let’s do a little math of our own to see just how big a hill the Catamounts would have to climb to salvage this lost-looking season. To make the playoffs, UVM would likely have to vault past Northeastern (4-11-2 in league play) and either New Hampshire (6-9-1) or UMass (5-6-4). If we simply assume those teams will continue to win, lose and draw at the clip that got them those records, Northeastern would finish with 18 points (7-16-4), UNH with 22 (10-15-2) and UMass with 26 (9-10-8). That would leave UVM with a 17-point hole to fill to earn a tie with UNH for the eighth and final playoff spot, meaning the Catamounts could afford to lose just two of their final 11 games.
With the Minutemen and Wildcats improving, though, even that longshot scenario seems almost silly to consider, and the odds get a lot worse for UVM if those teams go .500 down the stretch.
In short, Vermont needs not one, but two teams to suffer a monumental collapse, while also winning at a rate it has not been able to hit in two years. It’s been a tough pill to swallow in Burlington, especially considering the Catamounts were in the Hockey East final in 2008 and made a Frozen Four appearance in 2009. And, with the path to a playoff berth nearly closed even before January’s end, the Catamounts have to find something else to play for.
“I think they’ve got a lot of pride in the program, a lot of pride in the jersey,” Sneddon said after Friday’s 4-3 loss at UMass. “We’ve seen absolutely zero signs of guys giving up or feeling sorry for themselves. I think it’s just a matter of we still have life in us, and we want to make sure we’re getting better.”
It hasn’t been an easy year by any means, and while the discipline and commitment problems the program has suffered over the last few years were not a part of this season’s picture, a whole host of other problems have surfaced. The biggest one is, frankly, finding enough healthy players to fill the lineup card every night.
Six regulars have missed substantial time this year, and none have been a bigger blow than Chris McCarthy, who suffered a shoulder injury requiring surgery in the Nov. 5 loss to Providence. McCarthy is gone for the year, taking the eight goals and 12 assists he scored as a sophomore with him. Freshman defenseman Nick Luukko is also gone for the season with an abdominal injury, and explosive sophomore forward Connor Brickley has been out since getting sliced by a skate blade to the back of the knee during the World Junior Championships, his prognosis still unclear for 2011-12.
That has led to many young UVM players being thrown into the fire early.
“We’ve got a lot of young players playing roles that they just wouldn’t be playing most likely if we had the six guys back in the lineup,” Sneddon said. “I think we’re getting valuable experience, I think they can keep the optimism here, not only for the stretch run, but for the future.”
Senior goaltender Rob Madore, who last year had a 2.98 goals-against average and .907 save percentage, has also picked an awful time to have his worst season, with a clunky 3.69 GAA and .875 save percentage this year.
One thing is clear, however: After showing a lot of frustration with his team over the last couple of years (and some noteworthy players subsequently quitting or being dismissed from the team), Sneddon has is a little more enamored with this year’s squad.
“I think that’s optimism, and I think (the players) feed off of (the coaches),” he said. “I’m not going to walk in and yell and scream about the game tonight. There are certain things to teach, but I think overall I can’t ask for much more of these guys. Everybody who can dress is dressing, and they’re giving it their all in practices and games.”
Unfortunately, it’s almost certain that “their all” won’t be enough for a playoff run this year.
Games of the Week
Maine at Boston University, Friday and Saturday
The Terriers get their stiffest test since taking over first place in the league a couple of weeks ago, as the Black Bears come into this two-game set at Agganis Arena off a sweep of Boston College and a 6-1-1 record over their last eight.
Hockey East power rankings
1. Boston University (15-6-1, 12-4-1 Hockey East) – The league’s best team is firing on all cylinders these days, on a five-game unbeaten streak that includes last weekend’s combined 14-1 thrashing of Providence over two games.
2. UMass-Lowell (14-7-0, 9-6-0) – The River Hawks played three games in four days, and an important sweep of Northeastern offset some of the sting of a 1-0 loss at Providence Tuesday night. Freshman Scott Wilson led the way over the weekend with three goals and an assist in the two games.
3. Maine (12-8-3, 9-7-2) – A sweep of Boston College is just the latest in a series of big victories for the Black Bears, who are now in position to host a playoff series if the season ended today. Junior Matt Mangene had a huge pair of games, scoring the game-winner Friday and earning his first collegiate hat trick on Saturday.
4. Boston College (14-10-1, 10-7-1) – The slide continues for the Eagles, who have one win in their last five games and two in their last seven. An improving UNH team greets them this weekend in a home-and-home.
5. Merrimack (13-5-5, 9-4-3) – The split weekend against New Hampshire brought the Warriors into a tie with BC for second place, but that was overshadowed by the loss of senior Carter Madsen, who crashed awkwardly into the boards and suffered a leg injury severe enough to require a stretcher and immediate hospitalization. Though few details have been announced publicly, Madsen called it “a tough and frustrating time” in a statement, and coach Mark Dennehy (Dorchester, Mass.) told reporters after the game that Madsen’s situation didn’t look good, according to the Eagle-Tribune.
6. Northeastern (8-11-3, 4-11-2) – After ending 2011 red hot, the Huskies have been ice cold in 2012, with no wins since the 3-2 shocker at Minnesota in the Mariucci Classic final. They do have a chance to stop the bleeding with two games at cellar-dwelling Vermont this weekend.
7. Providence (10-11-2, 8-7-1) – PC went 1-2 during a busy week, taking it on the nose from league-leading BU but bouncing back to steal a win from UMass-Lowell at home. The 8-0 loss to the Terriers on Saturday was the most goals the Friars have given up all season, and included six scores by the BU power play.
8. UMass (9-8-5, 5-6-4) – They had to work for it, but the Minutemen earned a win Friday against Vermont in their only action, and are now unbeaten in their last four. Danny Hobbs picked up a hat trick for UMass Friday, the first of his career.
9. New Hampshire (9-12-2, 6-9-1) – There seems to be some daylight ahead for the Wildcats, who after a split with Merrimack are 3-1-0 in their last four. They’ll still have a dogfight for the last playoff spot with UMass a point ahead of them and Northeastern not far behind.
10. Vermont (5-17-1, 2-13-1) – UVM is clearly in “moral victory” mode right now, and certainly played well enough in stretches to earn a win Friday in Amherst, but couldn’t put together a complete effort to beat UMass. They’ve got two wins in their last 12 games.
Andrew Merritt can be reached at MerrittNEHJ@gmail.com.
